US 7,890,403 B1Grant
Systems and methods for implementing real estate future market value insurance
Issue Date:2011-02-15
•17 Claims
•9 Drawing Sheets
Abstract
A method and mechanism that protect a person with a property interest in a piece of real property against a loss of expected future market value of the real property. A policyholder may first select an expected future market value for the real property and a time period in which the expected future market value is to be attained (e.g., 10 years). An insurer may model relevant conditions, factors and events that effect property values over time for a particular geographic region. A premium may be determined based on the selected expected future market value and the determination of expected future market value made by the insurer. Upon a conveyance of the real property at the time period or window specified, a loss may be determined if the fair market value of the real property is less than the selected expected future market value.
Metadata
Assignee
- United Services Automobile Association (USAA)
Inventors
- Arthur Quentin Smith
- Bradly Jay Billman
Application Information
Application Number:US 12/482,902
Filing Date:2009-06-11
Priority Date:2008-08-15
Art Unit:3694
Classifications
IPC:
G06Q40/00
Patent Drawings (9 sheets)
Description
Cross-Reference to Related Applications
[0001] The present application is a continuation in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/192,396, filed Aug. 15, 2008, which is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
Field
[0002] The present disclosure is directed to systems and methods that provided an insurance policy that covers a loss in market value associated with real estate.
Background
[0003] An owner of a piece of real property may purchase property owners insurance to protect against losses associated with the real property, such as for example fire damage, wind damage, water damage, and other damage that may be experienced in connection with the property. Accordingly, if for example a tree is blown down and falls into a structure on the real property, such property owners insurance would typically cover the cost to repair the structure. However, and significantly, the property owners insurance likely does not cover the cost to replace the fallen tree with a similar tree, even if the fallen tree represented an amount of value to the real property that has been lost.
[0004] Real property normally increases in value over time due to market conditions based on factors such as a finite amount of land, inflation, and regional real estate development. However, the value of real property can nevertheless decrease due to adverse market conditions as well as losses in connection with the real property that are perceived to be adverse to the overall desirability of the real property. Some devaluations are permanent. Such losses are not generally covered by a property insurance policies.
Summary
[0005] A method and mechanism that protect a person with a property interest in a piece of real property against a loss of expected future market value of the real property. A policyholder may first select an expected future market value for the real property and a time period in which the expected future market value is to be attained (e.g., 10 years). An insurer may model relevant conditions, factors and events that effect property values over time for a particular geographic region. A premium may be determined based on the selected expected future market value and the determination of expected future market value made by the insurer. Upon a conveyance of the real property at the time period or window specified, a loss may be determined if the fair market value of the real property is less than the selected expected future market value.
[0006] To issue the policy, the conditions, factors and events identified may be applied to present fair market value of the real property to model the expected future market value. The expected future market value may be determined as a distribution curve, which may be used to set the premium. The model may be run periodically to adjust the premium and to account for current market conditions.
[0007] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a system of protecting real property against a loss of expected future market value is provided. The system includes at least one subsystem that determines conditions that affect property values in a geographic region where the real property is located and at least one subsystem that creates a model of the conditions to determine the affect each condition has on property value over time. The system also includes at least one subsystem that applies the model to a present fair market value of the real property and at least one subsystem that determines the expected future market value of the real property at a future date. The system further includes at least one subsystem that issues an insurance policy to cover a difference between an actual market value and the expected future market value at the future date. In a particular embodiment, the conditions are those having a statistically relevant effect on property values over time. In another particular embodiment, the system additionally includes at least one subsystem that defines the loss as occurring upon a conveyance of the real property in a transaction between two unrelated parties.
[0008] According to another embodiment of the present invention, a system of protecting real property against a loss of expected future market value is provided. The system includes at least one subsystem that models conditions that have a statistical effect on property values in a geographic region and at least one subsystem that applies the modeled conditions to the real property to determine a distribution curve of the expected future market value of the real property at a future date. The system also includes at least one subsystem that determines a premium associated with a policy to protect against the loss based on a selected expected future market value along the distribution curve. The system further includes at least one subsystem that covers the loss as a difference between an actual market value of the real property and the expected future market value at the future date in the event of a conveyance of the real property.
Brief Description of the Drawings
[0009] The foregoing summary, as well as the following detailed description of various embodiments of the present innovation, will be better understood when read in conjunction with the appended drawings. For the purpose of illustrating the embodiments, there are shown in the drawings embodiments which are presently envisioned. As should be understood, however, the embodiments of the present innovation are not limited to the precise arrangements and instrumentalities shown. In the drawings:
[0010] FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an example of a computing environment within which various embodiments of the present innovation may be implemented;
[0011] FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a system including a real estate value insurance policy to an owner of real property in accordance with various embodiments of the present innovation; and
[0012] FIG. 3 is a flow diagram showing actions performed in the connection with the policy of FIG. 2 in accordance with various embodiments of the present innovation;
[0013] FIG. 4 is a flow diagram showing actions performed in the course of the issuer issuing the policy of FIG. 2 in accordance with various embodiments of the present innovation;
[0014] FIG. 5 is a chart showing a risk matrix as may be constructed by the issuer in the course of issuing the policy of FIG. 2 in accordance with various embodiments of the present innovation;
[0015] FIG. 6 is a flow diagram showing actions performed in the connection with the policy of FIG. 2 in accordance with an expected future market value component of the present innovation;
[0016] FIG. 7 is a flow diagram showing actions performed in the course of the issuer issuing the policy of FIG. 2 in accordance with the expected future market value component of the present innovation;
[0017] FIG. 8 is a chart showing a risk matrix as may be constructed by the issuer in the course of issuing the policy of FIG. 2 in accordance with the expected future market value component of the present innovation; and
[0018] FIG. 9 is an exemplary distribution of expected future market values of a piece of real property.
Detailed Description
Example Computing Environment
[0019] FIG. 1 is set forth herein as an exemplary computing environment in which various embodiments of the present innovation may be implemented. The computing system environment is only one example of a suitable computing environment and is not intended to suggest any limitation as to the scope of use or functionality. Numerous other general purpose or special purpose computing system environments or configurations may be used. Examples of well-known computing systems, environments, and/or configurations that may be suitable for use include, but are not limited to, personal computers (PCs), server computers, handheld or laptop devices, multi-processor systems, microprocessor-based systems, network PCs, minicomputers, mainframe computers, embedded systems, distributed computing environments that include any of the above systems or devices, and the like.
[0020] Computer-executable instructions such as program modules executed by a computer may be used. Generally, program modules include routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, etc. that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract data types. Distributed computing environments may be used where tasks are performed by remote processing devices that are linked through a communications network or other data transmission medium. In a distributed computing environment, program modules and other data may be located in both local and remote computer storage media including memory storage devices.
[0021] With reference to FIG. 1 , an exemplary system for implementing aspects described herein includes a computing device, such as computing device 100. In its most basic configuration, computing device 100 typically includes at least one processing unit 102 and memory 104. Depending on the exact configuration and type of computing device, memory 104 may be volatile (such as random access memory (RAM)), non-volatile (such as read-only memory (ROM), flash memory, etc.), or some combination of the two. This most basic configuration is illustrated in FIG. 1 by dashed line 106. Computing device 100 may have additional features/functionality. For example, computing device 100 may include additional storage (removable and/or non-removable) including, but not limited to, magnetic or optical disks or tape. Such additional storage is illustrated in FIG. 1 by removable storage 108 and non-removable storage 110.
[0022] Computing device 100 typically includes or is provided with a variety of computer-readable media. Computer-readable media can be any available media that can be accessed by computing device 100 and includes both volatile and non-volatile media, removable and non-removable media. By way of example, and not limitation, computer-readable media may comprise computer storage media and communication media.
[0023] Computer storage media includes volatile and non-volatile, removable and non-removable media implemented in any method or technology for storage of information such as computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules or other data. Memory 104, removable storage 108, and non-removable storage 110 are all examples of computer storage media. Computer storage media includes, but is not limited to, RAM, ROM, electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technology, CD-ROM, digital versatile disks (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium which can be used to store the desired information and which can accessed by computing device 100. Any such computer storage media may be part of computing device 100.
[0024] Computing device 100 may also contain communications connection(s) 112 that allow the device to communicate with other devices. Each such communications connection 112 is an example of communication media. Communication media typically embodies computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules or other data in a modulated data signal such as a carrier wave or other transport mechanism and includes any information delivery media. The term “modulated data signal” means a signal that has one or more of its characteristics set or changed in such a manner as to encode information in the signal. By way of example, and not limitation, communication media includes wired media such as a wired network or direct-wired connection, and wireless media such as acoustic, radio frequency (RF), infrared and other wireless media. The term computer-readable media as used herein includes both storage media and communication media.
[0025] Computing device 100 may also have input device(s) 114 such as keyboard, mouse, pen, voice input device, touch input device, etc. Output device(s) 116 such as a display, speakers, printer, etc. may also be included. All these devices are generally known to the relevant public and therefore need not be discussed in any detail herein except as provided.
[0026] Notably, computing device 100 may be one of a plurality of computing devices 100 inter-connected by a network 118, as is shown in FIG. 1 . As may be appreciated, the network 118 may be any appropriate network, each computing device 100 may be connected thereto by way of a connection 112 in any appropriate manner, and each computing device 100 may communicate with one or more of the other computing devices 100 in the network 118 in any appropriate manner. For example, the network 118 may be a wired or wireless network within an organization or home or the like, and may include a direct or indirect coupling to an external network such as the Internet or the like.
[0027] It should be understood that the various techniques described herein may be implemented in connection with hardware or software or, where appropriate, with a combination of both. Thus, the methods and apparatus of the presently disclosed subject matter, or certain aspects or portions thereof, may take the form of program code (i.e., instructions) embodied in tangible media, such as floppy diskettes, CD-ROMs, hard drives, or any other machine-readable storage medium wherein, when the program code is loaded into and executed by a machine, such as a computer, the machine becomes an apparatus for practicing the presently disclosed subject matter.
[0028] In the case of program code execution on programmable computers, the computing device generally includes a processor, a storage medium readable by the processor (including volatile and non-volatile memory and/or storage elements), at least one input device, and at least one output device. One or more programs may implement or utilize the processes described in connection with the presently disclosed subject matter, e.g., through the use of an application-program interface (API), reusable controls, or the like. Such programs may be implemented in a high-level procedural or object-oriented programming language to communicate with a computer system. However, the program(s) can be implemented in assembly or machine language, if desired. In any case, the language may be a compiled or interpreted language, and combined with hardware implementations.
[0029] Although exemplary embodiments may refer to utilizing aspects of the presently disclosed subject matter in the context of one or more stand-alone computer systems, the subject matter is not so limited, but rather may be implemented in connection with any computing environment, such as a network 118 or a distributed computing environment. Still further, aspects of the presently disclosed subject matter may be implemented in or across a plurality of processing chips or devices, and storage may similarly be effected across a plurality of devices in a network 118. Such devices might include personal computers, network servers, and handheld devices, for example.
Real Property Market Value Insurance Policy
[0030] In various embodiments of the present innovation, and turning now to FIG. 2 , a real property market value insurance policy 10 is provided to cover a loss experienced by an owner 12 of a piece of real property 14 when the real property 14 loses market value, either due to overall market conditions or due to a specific event in connection with the real property 14 and as defined by the policy 10. The policy 10 may be purchased either when the owner 12 purchases the real property or after such purchase. The policy provides that if the owner experiences a loss in the value of the real property as defined by the policy, the issuer 16 of the policy, which is presumably an insurance company, will pay out an amount as defined by the policy to the owner or an assignee thereof.
[0031] As should be understood, the real property 14 may be most any real property, including land, land with improvements thereon such as for example a house, improvements without attached land, such as for example a condominium apartment or a co-operative apartment among other things, improvements in non-traditional forms, such as for example time-shared property, and the like. Moreover, the real property 14 may be residential property, commercial property, property held in trust, etc. Note that the owner 12 of the real property 14 insured by the market value insurance policy 10 likely already has a more traditional property insurance policy 18 on the property 14. Accordingly, it should be understood that the policy 10 of the present innovation is in addition to such more traditional property insurance policy 18 and is intended to cover market value losses that are not already covered by such more traditional property insurance policy 18.
[0032] The market value of the real property 14 should be understood to be the value of the property 14 such as may be obtained by the owner 12 if sold to a willing buyer in an arm's length transaction. Thus, the market value of the property 14 should be valued according to an appraisal of such property 14 as may be performed by the average competent appraiser. Note here that the market value is not necessarily represented by a purchase price paid by the owner 12, for the reason that the owner 12 may have paid too much or too little, and at any rate the purchase price may have been affected by unusual circumstances particular to the owner 12 and the seller that sold the property 14 to the owner 12.
[0033] The market value policy 10 as purchased by the owner 12 as was set forth above intended to cover losses not covered by the traditional policy 18, although some overlap between the policies 10, 18 may nevertheless occur. Accordingly, if as was set forth above a tree is blown down and falls into a structure on the real property 14, the property insurance policy 18 would typically cover the cost to repair the structure, and the market value policy 10 would cover the cost to replace the fallen tree with a similar tree, especially inasmuch as the fallen tree represents a loss of value to the real property 14.
[0034] More generally, the property insurance policy 18 would typically cover losses to structures on real property 14 and related improvements. In contrast, the market value policy 10 would cover at least some losses to natural features on real property 14 such as trees, rock formations, ponds, shrubs, etc., as well as at least some losses that are intangible, such as the loss of a pleasant view, the loss of quiet surroundings, the loss of a pleasant environment without objectionable odors, sounds, sights, activities, etc. Significantly, the market value policy 10 may cover losses to market value from external forces that are both intangible and not arising from adjacent neighbors, including losses of market value from overall market conditions such as a real estate bust, overall financial conditions such as a recession, toxic chemical spills, and the like.
[0035] The loss of market value covered by the policy 10 may be any appropriate loss of market value. For example, the loss may be defined as a devaluation of the real property 14, such as may occur during a downturn in real estate values in general or otherwise. Alternately or in addition, the loss may be defined as a devaluation arising from a specific action, such as for example the loss of a view, the commencement of an objectionable activity on adjacent property, the loss of a natural feature on the property such as a tree that was considered to add value to the real property 14, etc.
[0036] Notably, the loss may be defined by the policy 10 to arise when the owner 12 suffers the devaluation and before the owner 12 sells the property 14 at a loss, when the owner 12 sells the property 14 at a loss, when the owner appraises the property 14, perhaps in connection with pledging same as collateral, or when the owner attempts to sell the property 14 and cannot do so for lack of a buyer, among other things. Notably, inasmuch as the property 14 may regain value that would accrue to the owner 12 if the loss is paid before the property 14 is sold, care should be taken not to reward the owner 12 for a temporary loss that could later be followed by a gain. For example, the insurance policy 10 may require that payment on a claim for a loss incurs a lien on the property 14 so as to offset the payment with any future gain when the property 14 is sold.
[0037] The amount of the loss may be defined by the policy 10 in any appropriate manner. For example, the loss may be defined based on the purchase price paid by the owner 12 for the property 14 or an appraisal of the property 14 when the policy 10 is issued, and an appraisal of the property 14 at the time the loss arises. Further, the amount of the loss may be subject to a deductible amount that is either a fixed value or a percentage of the amount of the loss, and may be limited to a minimum and/or maximum value before or after any deductible is applied. Further, the loss may be limited to a particular time frame, such as for example only between five and ten years after the policy 10 is issued, and perhaps only if the policy 10 remains in force when the loss arises.
[0038] Notably, if the owner 12 of an insured piece of property 14 makes a claim for a loss that arises in connection therewith, the claim once approved can be paid based on a calculated value of the loss of market value and after taking into consideration any deductibles of other loss limitations. Alternately, and if advisable, the issuer 16 may decide to take a remediating action that would restore the market value or a portion thereof so as to mitigate such payment on the claim. For example, if a loss of 40,000 USD is claimed based on the destruction of a tree on the real property 14 but the cost to restore the property 14 by replacing the tree is 20,000 USD, the issuer 16 would likely choose replacing the tree rather than paying out the 40,000 USD claim.
[0039] Note here that if remediation restores only a portion of market value lost, the remaining portion likely is compensated on a cash basis. Note too that the decision on whether to remediate at least a portion of a loss should take into account not only the current cost to remediate but also possible future costs. For example, replacing the tree may cost the 20,000 USD set forth above, but it may also be likely that the replacement tree could also be destroyed, in which case the cost could be another 20,000 USD or a decision to pay the entire 40,000 USD. Thus, paying 20,000 USD to remediate could save 20,000 USD or could lead to paying a total of 40,000 USD or even 60,000 USD or more.
[0040] Presumably, the policy 10 as issued includes terms to guard against any fraud that the owner 12 may attempt to perpetrate. For example, to guard against an artificial loss, such as for example may be achieved by selling the property 14 at an artificially low price, the policy 10 may require that each loss be proved by an appraisal of the property 14 at the time the loss arises, and that the issuer 16 can challenge such appraisal as appropriate. More generally, to guard against any fraud, the policy 10 may exclude certain losses, such as for example losses that occur by the unreasonable action or inaction of the owner 12, losses that the owner 12 could reasonably have prevented, losses due to negligence or incompetence on the part of the owner 12, and the like.
[0041] The policy 10 may be established by the owner 12 when the owner 12 either purchases the property 14 or pledges same as collateral, or at any other time. In any case, the property 14 should be appraised to ascertain the value thereof for purposes of defining any future loss. The policy 10 as purchased may specify a one-time paid up premium or recurring premiums, and may specify that the loss must occur while the policy 10 is in force. As was alluded to above, the issuer 16 of the policy 10 is typically an insurance company but can be another type of company or even an individual.
[0042] Turning now to FIG. 3 , it is seen that an owner 12 wishes to purchase a real property market value insurance policy 10 from an issuer 16 with regard to a piece of real property 14. Accordingly, the owner 12 requests such a policy 10 from the issuer 16 (301). In response, the issuer 16 defines a base market value for the property 14 (303), either as a purchase price if the owner 12 is purchasing the property 14 or has recently purchased the property 14, or as an appraised value of the property 14 as provided by an appraiser, defined a premium (305), and issues the policy 10 to the owner 12 of the property 14 (307).
[0043] In one example, the policy 10 is issued for a predetermined period such as a year, during which the terms of the policy 10 including a premium paid and a base market value for the property 14 remain constant. The policy 10 can then be renewed for a like period, although perhaps with a different premium and/or other terms. Notably, the base market value of the property 14 as set forth in connection with the renewed policy 10 may be adjusted or may remain constant. If adjusted, such adjustment may be based on a new appraisal or on a defined mathematical formula. In some implementations, the premiums paid by the policy holder (e.g., owner 12) may convert into an annuity if the owner commits the policy 10 for a predetermined period (e.g., 10 years) and does not file for a claim. This has the added attraction of providing a savings aspect to the policy 10.
[0044] As is usual, the premium established with regard to the policy 10 is based on a calculation of the risk of loss that is incurred in connection with the policy 10. Thus, the premium is established from a variety of factors, including but not limited to the base market value, market volatility at the time the policy 10 is established, the location of the real property 14, and particularly compiled statistics regarding types of potential losses that may result in a claim under the policy and average amounts thereof. Such statistics are generally known or should be apparent to the relevant public and therefore need not be set forth herein in any detail other than that which is provided. Notably, such statistics should take the location of the real property 14 into account, especially inasmuch as the market value for any piece of property 14 is often highly dependent on the location thereof.
[0045] Returning to FIG. 3 , it is seen that the owner 12 makes a claim on the policy 10 based on having suffered a loss in the market value of the property 14 as a result of some loss event (309). For example, the loss event may be the sale of the property 14 at a loss, or else a loss as defined by the policy 10 that occurs prior to such a sale. In response, the issuer 16 processes the claim (311) by determining among other things that the loss is covered by the policy 10, a market value for the property 14 such as may be obtained from an appraisal, and that the loss is not fraudulent or otherwise the fault of the owner 12.
[0046] Presuming that the claim is approved, the amount to be paid is calculated based on the difference between the base market value for the property 14 as set forth in the policy 10 and the market value when the loss arose, and also based on any deductible or other limitations on the loss as set forth in the policy 10 (313). Thereafter, the amount of the loss as adjusted by any deductibles or limitations is paid to the owner 12 (315), or else the issuer takes an appropriate remediating action if available, advisable, and capable of remediating the loss as experienced by the owner 12 (317).
[0047] Turning now to FIG. 4 , it is seen that from the point of view of the issuer 16, providing the policy 10 to the owner 12 with regard to a piece of real property 14 thereof is performed generally in the following manner. Preliminarily, the issuer upon being requested to issue the policy 10 as at 301 performs an assessment regarding the risks incurred by issuing a policy 10 to the owner 12 covering the real property 14. In such a assessment, and referring also to FIG. 5 , the issuer 16 identifies a number of likely types of events that may cause a loss in the market value of the property 14 (first column in FIG. 5 ) (401 in FIG. 4 ), estimates a probability of each type of event occurring during the term of the policy 10 and also the impact of each type of event on the base market value of the property 14 (second and third columns) (403, 405), and based on the estimated probability and impact of each type of event determines whether each type of event is to be covered by the policy 10 (fourth column) (407). Also, the issuer 16 may in addition to deciding to cover a particular type of risk may decide on appropriate exclusions, pre-existing conditions, and other limitations that are to be included in the policy 10.
[0048] Generally, although by no means exclusively, the issuer 16 would not cover a type of event that has too high a probability or that has too high an impact, or any type of event for which the risk is not well-understood for effective pricing. For example, and as shown in FIG. 5 , the issuer 16 has decided to cover losses due to fire, flood, wind, and land deformation (mudslide, e.g.) damage, each of which has a relatively low probability of occurrence, but has decided to forego covering recession, a local real estate crash, chemical damage, drought, and environmental regulatory changes. With regard to all but chemical damage, and as can be seen, the probability of loss is relatively high, and therefore the risk is to be avoided by the issuer. In contrast, the probability of loss for chemical damage is relatively low but the loss impact is high, and therefore also to be avoided by the issuer 16.
[0049] In any event, for each type of event to be covered, the issuer 16 then defines minimum and maximum losses expected from such an event occurring (fifth and sixth columns) (409), as the base market value for the property 14 defined as at 303 multiplied by a range of the impact of the loss from the third column. Based thereon, the issuer 16 then defines a maximum probable loss for each type of event as the maximum loss expected (sixth column) (411) multiplied by the probability of the event occurring (second column). The maximum probable losses for all types of events covered are then summed to arrive at an expected cost to the issuer 16 in connection with issuing the policy 10 (413).
[0050] Thereafter, the issuer may set the premium for the policy 10 based on the expected cost as well as other factors (415). Such other factors are generally known or apparent to the relevant public and therefore need not be set forth herein in any detail other than that which is provided. Generally, in addition to the expected cost, the premium is based on an administrative cost to underwrite, quote, fulfill, and otherwise service the policy 10, a profit margin, and perhaps an adjustment as may be necessary or desirable to be competitive with other issuers 16. Of course, assuming the policy 10 is acceptable to the owner 12, the issuer 16 issues the policy 10 thereto in return for payment of the premium set as at 415 (417).
[0051] Of course, the issuer must also service the policy 10 by billing for premiums, collecting the billed premiums and investing the proceeds as may be deemed advisable, processing claims, handling renewals, handling appraisals, and other typical insurance functions. Such functions as should be understood are generally known or should be apparent to the relevant public and therefore need not be set forth herein in any detail. Accordingly, such insurance functions may be performed in any appropriate manner without departing from the spirit and scope of the present innovation.
[0052] In some implementations, the owner 12 may want to protect a future market value of a piece of real property 14. For example, the owner 12 may want to protect the future market value of the piece of real property 14 in 5, 10 or 15 (or more) years. Referring again to FIG. 2 , in another aspect, the real property market value insurance policy 10 is provided with a component to cover a loss experienced by an owner 12 of a piece of real property 14 when the real property 14 does not reach a expected future market value due to overall market conditions and as defined by the policy 10. The policy 10 may be purchased either when the owner 12 purchases the real property or after such purchase. The policy provides that if the owner experiences a loss because the real property 14 fails to attain an expected future value of the real property as defined by the policy, the issuer 16 of the policy, which is presumably an insurance company, will pay out an amount as defined by the policy to the owner or an assignee thereof upon a conveyance of the real property. Here again, the real property 14 may be any real property. The expected future market value of the real property 14 should be understood to be the value of the property 14 as may be obtained by the owner 12 if the real property 14 is sold to a willing buyer in an arm's length transaction at some point in the future.
[0053] A loss (i.e., a failure of the real property 14 to attain the expected future market value) may be any appropriate failure to obtain the expected future market value in accordance with market conditions external to the real property 14. For example, the loss may be defined as a devaluation of the real property 14, such as may occur during a downturn in real estate values in general or otherwise. Alternately or additionally, the loss may be defined as a devaluation arising from a specific action, such as changes in local zoning, degradation of the local school system, population changes, etc.
[0054] The amount of the loss may be defined by the policy 10 in any appropriate manner. For example, the loss may defined based on the expected future market value defined by the owner 12 for the property 14 in the policy 10 and an appraisal of the property 14 at the time the loss arises (i.e., when the property is sold in the future). Further, the amount of the loss may be subject to a deductible amount that is either a fixed value or a percentage of the amount of the loss, and may be limited to a minimum and/or maximum value before or after any deductible is applied. Further, the loss may be limited to a particular time frame, such only between five and ten years after the policy 10 is issued, and perhaps only if the policy 10 remains in force when the loss arises.
[0055] Turning now to FIG. 6 , there is an exemplary operational flow of the processes performed in accordance with a policy having an expected future market value component. At 601, an owner 12 wishes to purchase the policy 10 having the expected future market value component from an issuer 16 with regard to a piece of real property 14. Accordingly, the owner 12 requests such a policy 10 having the expected future market value component from the issuer 16. The owner 12 may define the expected future market value, and a future date or range of future dates, at which the owner 12 would like to insure that the real property has a fair market value of the expected future market value. For example, the owner 12 may define the expected future market value to be $300,000 at a point in time 10 years in the future or within a range of 8-12 years in the future.
[0056] At 603, the issuer 16 performs an analysis to determine what the expected future market value may be in view of the trends, such as historical appreciation, expected demand, expected supply, expect growth of the metropolitan area in which the property 14 is located, desirability of the local area, rate of inflation, jobs in the local area, mortgage rate trends, access to recreation, historical appreciation, etc. With reference to FIGS. 7 and 8 , there is described an exemplary operational flow of the processed performed at 603. At 701, the issuer 16 upon being requested to issue the policy 10 performs an assessment regarding the risks incurred by issuing a policy 10 to the owner 12 covering the real property 14. In such an assessment the issuer 16 identifies a number of likely types of events, conditions and factors as shown in FIG. 8 that may affect the expected future market value of the property. The events, conditions and factors may be those have a statistically relevant effect on the future expected market value of the property 14.
[0057] At 703 and 705, the issuer 16 may estimate a probability of each type of event, condition or factor occurring during the term of the policy 10 and also the impact of each type of event, condition or factor on the expected future market value of the property 14 (second and third columns of FIG. 8 ). The issuer 16 may limit the estimate of future expected market value to certain types of events and may not cover events that have too high a probability of occurring, that have too high an impact, or have a risk is not well-understood for effective pricing. For example, and as shown in FIG. 8 , the issuer 16 has decided to cover only certain events, which may be input to a model to determine the future expected market value. Other events, such as losses due to fire and flood, may not have well understood long-term effects. For example, there may not be long term data for a geographic region on how a flood may affect home prices in a particular geographic region.
[0058] In some implementations, the events may be tailored and weighed differently for different geographic regions. For example, projected growth may be lower in Northern states and higher in Southern states. Negative effects of infrastructure may be greater in rapidly developing areas that may not meet the needs of the growth, as compared to established areas that already serve the needs of the population.
[0059] At 707, the issuer may set the premium for the policy 10 based on the expected cost as well as other factors. The premium may be based on the current fair market value and the likelihood that the property 14 will attain the expected future market value determined at 603 and events that may affect the expected future market value. The information obtained at 701-705 may be modeled to determine the expected future market value. The model may employ a simple linear equation to weigh the factors, a neural network, etc. In some implementations, the information may be modeled in a generalized linear model (GLM) to perform a least squares regression to determine the predictive value of each of the events.
[0060] The modeled expected future market value for a particular property 14 may yield a distribution curve, such as shown in FIG. 9 . The distribution curve may be used to set the premiums 902-910. For example, if it is extremely likely that the property 14 will meet the expected future market value at the time or range of times identified by the owner 12 at 601, then the premium 902 may be set to a relatively low amount. If, however, it is unlikely that the property 14 will meet the expected future market value at the time or range of times identified by the owner 12 at 601, then the premium 910 may be set to a relatively high amount. In some implementations, the insurer 16 may not decide not to issue a policy if the expected future market value requested at 601 is more than a predetermined number of standard deviations from the mean (e.g., 3). The process 700 may be repeated on a periodic basis to adjust the premium and/or risk factors associated with the policy 10. The policy is then ready to be issued to the owner 12 at 717.
[0061] Returning to FIG. 6 , at 605, a premium amount is conveyed to the owner 12 requesting the policy 10. If acceptable to the owner, then at 607, the issuer 16 may issue the policy 10 to the owner 12 of the property 14, and the owner 12 makes premium payments to keep the policy 10 in force. The policy 10 may then be renewed for a subsequent future expected future market value and a subsequent future time or range of times, although perhaps with a different premium and/or other terms.
[0062] At 609, at the date or within the range of dates defined at 601, the owner 12 makes a claim on the policy 10 based on having suffered a loss in the expected future market value of the property 14 as a result of some loss event. For example, the loss event may be the sale of the property 14 at a loss.
[0063] At 611, in response to the claim, the issuer 16 processes the claim by determining among other things if the loss is covered by the policy 10, a market value for the property 14 such as may be obtained from an appraisal, and that the loss is not fraudulent or otherwise the fault of the owner 12. For example, the issuer 16 may deny coverage for the loss if the loss was due to a forced sale (e.g., IRS sale), arson, eminent domain, war, etc.
[0064] Presuming that the claim is approved, the amount to be paid is calculated at 613 based on the difference between the expected future market value for the property 14 as set forth in the policy 10 and the market value when the loss arose, and also based on any deductible or other limitations on the loss as set forth in the policy 10. Thereafter, at 615, the amount of the loss may be adjusted by any deductibles or limitations is paid to the owner 12, or the issuer 16 may take an appropriate remediating action if available at 617, to remediate the loss as experienced by the owner 12. For example, the insurer 16 may purchase the property 14 if it is determined that will remediate the loss to the owner 12, but minimize the financial loss to the insurer 16 as the property 14 may be held and/or resold at a high price.
[0065] Thus, as described above, the policy 10 may protect an owner 12 from losses occurring in the future if the property 14 fails to attain an expected future market value.
Conclusion
[0066] The programming believed necessary to effectuate the processes performed in connection with the various embodiments of the present innovation is relatively straight-forward and should be apparent to the relevant programming public. Accordingly, such programming is not attached hereto. Any particular programming, then, may be employed to effectuate the various embodiments of the present innovation without departing from the spirit and scope thereof.
[0067] In the present innovation, systems and methods provide a market value insurance policy 10 that covers at least some losses incurred by an owner 12 due to real estate market value associated with a piece of real property 14. The policy 10 covers at least some losses prior to the owner 12 of the real property 14 selling same. The market value insurance policy 10 is implemented so as to define risks unique to the market value of the real property 14 and to avoid fraud by the owner 12.
[0068] It should be appreciated that changes could be made to the embodiments described above without departing from the innovative concepts thereof. For example, although the present innovation is set forth primarily in terms of real property 14 comprising land, such real property need not necessarily include land. Likewise, although the present innovation is set forth primarily in terms of an owner 12 of the real property 14 purchasing the policy 10, another entity may also purchase the property if deemed appropriate, such as for example a tenant of the real property 14, a mortgagee, an agent, etc. It should be understood, therefore, that this innovation is not limited to the particular embodiments disclosed, but it is intended to cover modifications within the spirit and scope of the present innovation as defined by the appended claims.
Claims
What is claimed is:
1. A method for protecting a person against a loss with respect to an expected future market value of real property prior to or at a predetermined time in the future, the method comprising:
providing a processor;
defining events that have a statistically relevant effect on market value over time;
modeling, using the processor, the events to determine the expected future market value for the real property prior to and at the predetermined time, wherein the expected future market value represents an increase over a present fair market value;
defining a premium amount for a policy to protect against the loss based on the likelihood that the real property will attain the expected future market value at the predetermined time;
determining, using the processor, an actual market value of the real property prior to or at the predetermined time, wherein the actual market value of the real property prior to or at the predetermined time is less than the expected future market value for the real property prior to or at the predetermined time;
determining, prior to or at the predetermined time, that the loss has occurred, wherein the loss is equal to the actual market value of the real property prior to or at the predetermined time less the expected future market value prior to or at the predetermined time;
receiving a notification that the real property was conveyed in an arm's length transaction; and
thereafter, covering the loss.
2. The method of claim 1, further comprising defining the statistically relevant effect on market value over time for a particular geographic location.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the expected future market value is modeled as a distribution curve.
4. The method of claim 3, further comprising updating, using the processor, the modeling on a periodic basis to reflect changes in the events.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the events include one of a recession, real estate crash, infrastructure changes, population growth, job growth, land deformation, school quality, inflation, mortgage rate trends or access to recreational facilities.
6. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining the expected future market value in accordance with a present market value and historical appreciation.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the loss is covered if the loss is based on overall market conditions external to the real property.
8. A system of protecting real property against a loss of expected future market value, comprising:
at least one subsystem that determines conditions that affect real property values in a geographic region where the real property is located;
at least one subsystem that creates a model of the conditions to determine the effect each condition has on real property value over time;
at least one subsystem that applies the model to a present fair market value of the real property;
at least one subsystem that determines the expected future market value of the real property at a future date, wherein the expected future market value represents an increase over the present fair market value;
at least one subsystem that determines the loss to be an amount by which an actual market value of the real property on the future date is less than the expected future market value; and
at least one subsystem that issues an insurance policy to cover the loss in the event that the real property is conveyed in an arm's length transaction on or after the future date.
9. The system of claim 8, wherein the conditions are those having a statistically relevant effect on real property values over time.
10. The system of claim 9, wherein the conditions include one of a recession, real estate crash, infrastructure changes, population growth, job growth, land deformation, school quality, inflation, mortgage rate trends, access to recreational facilities or historical appreciation.
11. The system of claim 8, wherein the model is a linear distribution model of the conditions that affect real property values.
12. The system of claim 8, wherein a percentage of the loss is covered to account for policy conditions and a determination of market conditions.
13. A system of protecting real property against a loss of expected future market value, comprising:
at least one subsystem that models conditions that have a statistical effect on real property values in a geographic region;
at least one subsystem that applies the modeled conditions to the real property to determine a distribution curve of the expected future market value of the real property at a future date, wherein the expected future market value represents an increase over a present fair market value;
at least one subsystem that determines a premium associated with a policy to protect against the loss based on a selected expected future market value along the distribution curve;
at least one subsystem that determines an actual market value of the real property at the future date, wherein the actual market value of the real property at the future date is less than the expected future market value for the real property at the future date;
at least one subsystem that determines that the loss has occurred at the future date, wherein the loss is equal to the actual market value of the real property at the future date less the expected future market value at the future date; and
at least one subsystem that covers the loss at the future date in the event of a conveyance of the real property.
14. The system of claim 13, wherein the conditions are modeled over time from present time to a future date.
15. The system of claim 14, wherein the conditions include one of a recession, real estate crash, infrastructure changes, population growth, job growth, land deformation, school quality, inflation, mortgage rate trends, access to recreational facilities or historical appreciation.
16. The system of claim 13, wherein the premium is relatively lower if the selected market future market value is below a mean value and relatively higher if the selected market future market value is above a mean value.
17. The system of claim 16, wherein an insurer may decline a policy request if the selected market future market value is more than a predetermined number of standard deviations from the mean.
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