Kiln control and upset recovery using a model predictive control in series with forward chaining

[0001] This application is a Continuation-in-Part of U.S. Ser. No. 10/098,179, filed on Mar. 14, 2002, which will issue as U.S. Pat. No. 6,839,599 on Jan. 4, 2005, entitled KILN/COOLER CONTROL AND UPSET RECOVERY USING A COMBINATION OF MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL AND EXPERT SYSTEMS, which is related to, and claims the benefits of priority from, U.S. Provisional Patent Application Ser. No. 60/276,272, filed Mar. 15, 2001 and entitled KILN/COOLER CONTROL AND UPSET RECOVERY USING A COMBINATION OF MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL AND EXPERT SYSTEMS. This application is also a Continuation-in-Part Ser. No. 09/514,733 filed Feb. 28, 2000 of U.S. Pat. No. 6,493,956, issued on Dec. 10, 2002, which is a Continuation-in-Part of Ser. No. 09/250,432 filed Feb. 16, 1999 U.S. Pat. No. 6,487,459, issued on Nov. 26, 2002, entitled “METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR MODELING DYNAMIC AND STEADY STATE PROCESSES FOR PREDICTION, CONTROL AND OPTIMIZATION,” which is a continuation of Ser. No. 08/643,464 filed May 6, 1996 issued U.S. Pat. No. 5,933,345, issued Aug. 3, 1999, entitled “METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR DYNAMIC AND STEADY STATE MODELING OVER A DESIRED PATH BETWEEN TWO END POINTS.”

[0002] This invention pertains in general to modeling techniques, and, more particularly, to the use of a combined model predictive control and expert system for kiln/cooler control.

[0003] Process models that are utilized for prediction, control and optimization can be divided into two general categories, steady-state models and dynamic models. In each case the model is a mathematical construct that characterizes the process, and process measurements are utilized to parameterize or fit the model so that it replicates the behavior of the process. The mathematical model can then be implemented in a simulator for prediction or inverted by an optimization algorithm for control or optimization.

[0004] Steady-state or static models are utilized in modem process control systems that usually store a great deal of data, this data typically containing steady-state information at many different operating conditions. The steady-state information is utilized to train a non-linear model wherein the process input variables are represented by the vector U that is processed through the model to output the dependent variable Y. The non-linear model is a steady-state phenomenological or empirical model developed utilizing several ordered pairs (U_i, Y_i) of data from different measured steady states. If a model is represented as:
Y=P(U, Y)  (001)

[0005] where P is some where P is some parameterization, then the steady-state modeling procedure can be presented as:
({right arrow over (U)}, {right arrow over (Y)})→P  (002)
where U and Y are vectors containing the U_i, Y_i ordered pair elements. Given the model P, then the steady-state process gain can be calculated as:

[0006] $\begin{array}{cc}K=\frac{\Delta P\left(U,Y\right)}{\Delta U}& \left(003\right)\end{array}$
The steady-state model therefore represents the process measurements that are taken when the system is in a “static” mode. These measurements do not account for the perturbations that exist when changing from one steady-state condition to another steady-state condition. This is referred to as the dynamic part of a model.

[0007] A dynamic model is typically a linear model and is obtained from process measurements which are not steady-state measurements; rather, these are the data obtained when the process is moved from one steady-state condition to another steady-state condition. This procedure is where a process input or manipulated variable u(t) is input to a process with a process output or controlled variable y(t) being output and measured. Again, ordered pairs of measured data (u(I), y(I)) can be utilized to parameterize a phenomenological or empirical model, this time the data coming from non-steady-state operation. The dynamic model is represented as:
y(t)=p(u(t), y(t))  (004)
where p is some parameterization. Then the dynamic modeling procedure can be represented as:
({right arrow over (u)}, {right arrow over (y)})→p  (005)
Where u and y are vectors containing the (u(I),y(I)) ordered pair elements. Given the model p, then the steady-state gain of a dynamic model can be calculated as:

[0008] $\begin{array}{cc}k=\frac{\Delta p\left(u,y\right)}{\Delta u}& \left(006\right)\end{array}$
Unfortunately, almost always the dynamic gain k does not equal the steady-state gain K, since the steady-state gain is modeled on a much larger set of data, whereas the dynamic gain is defined around a set of operating conditions wherein an existing set of operating conditions are mildly perturbed. This results in a shortage of sufficient non-linear information in the dynamic data set in which non-linear information is contained within the static model. Therefore, the gain of the system may not be adequately modeled for an existing set of steady-state operating conditions. Thus, when considering two independent models, one for the steady-state model and one for the dynamic model, there is a mis-match between the gains of the two models when used for prediction, control and optimization. The reason for this mis-match are that the steady-state model is non-linear and the dynamic model is linear, such that the gain of the steady-state model changes depending on the process operating point, with the gain of the linear model being fixed. Also, the data utilized to parameterize the dynamic model do not represent the complete operating range of the process, i.e., the dynamic data is only valid in a narrow region. Further, the dynamic model represents the acceleration properties of the process (like inertia) whereas the steady-state model represents the tradeoffs that determine the process final resting value (similar to the tradeoff between gravity and drag that determines terminal velocity in free fall).

[0009] One technique for combining non-linear static models and linear dynamic models is referred to as the Hammerstein model. The Hammerstein model is basically an input-output representation that is decomposed into two coupled parts. This utilizes a set of intermediate variables that are determined by the static models which are then utilized to construct the dynamic model. These two models are not independent and are relatively complex to create.

[0010] The use of a non-linear static model in combination with a linear dynamic model for control provides overall control of a system in a predictive manner, i.e., it allows a prediction of a “move” to be made by the system to correct four variations in the operation of the overall plant or process. However, there are sometimes some dramatic or “chaotic” events that occur which will cause the system to change drastically. The predictive system will eventually compensate for this problem, but it has a fairly slow response time.

[0011] The present invention disclosed and claimed herein comprises a method for controlling a non-linear process. The method includes the steps of first providing a controller that is operable to receive inputs representing measured variables of the process and predicting on an output of the controller predicted control values for manipulatible variables that control the process. An expert system is provided that models the actions of an operator of the process over an operating region of the process that represents a set of rules for actions to be taken by an operator upon the occurrence of predetermined conditions in the operation of the process. The operation of the controller is modified with the expert system when one of the predetermined conditions exists.

[0052] Referring now to FIG. 1, there is illustrated a diagrammatic view of a Hammerstein model of the prior art. This is comprised of a non-linear static operator model 10 and a linear dynamic model 12, both disposed in a series configuration. The operation of this model is described in H. T. Su, and T. J. McAvoy, “Integration of Multilayer Perceptron Networks and Linear Dynamic Models: A Hammerstein Modeling Approach” to appear in I & EC Fundamentals, paper dated Jul. 7, 1992, which reference is incorporated herein by reference. Hammerstein models in general have been utilized in modeling non-linear systems for some time. The structure of the Hammerstein model illustrated in FIG. 1 utilizes the non-linear static operator model 10 to transform the input U into intermediate variables H. The non-linear operator is usually represented by a finite polynomial expansion. However, this could utilize a neural network or any type of compatible modeling system. The linear dynamic operator model 12 could utilize a discreet dynamic transfer function representing the dynamic relationship between the intermediate variable H and the output Y. For multiple input systems, the non-linear operator could utilize a multilayer neural network, whereas the linear operator could utilize a two layer neural network. A neural network for the static operator is generally well known and described in U.S. Pat. No. 5,353,207, issued Oct. 4, 1994, and assigned to the present assignee, which is incorporated herein by reference. These type of networks are typically referred to as a multilayer feed-forward network which utilizes training in the form of back-propagation. This is typically performed on a large set of training data. Once trained, the network has weights associated therewith, which are stored in a separate database.

[0053] Once the steady-state model is obtained, one can then choose the output vector from the hidden layer in the neural network as the intermediate variable for the Hammerstein model. In order to determine the input for the linear dynamic operator, u(t), it is necessary to scale the output vector h(d) from the non-linear static operator model 10 for the mapping of the intermediate variable h(t) to the output variable of the dynamic model y(t), which is determined by the linear dynamic model.

[0054] During the development of a linear dynamic model to represent the linear dynamic operator, in the Hammerstein model, it is important that the steady-state non-linearity remain the same. To achieve this goal, one must train the dynamic model subject to a constraint so that the non-linearity learned by the steady-state model remains unchanged after the training. This results in a dependency of the two models on each other.

[0055] Referring now to FIG. 2, there is illustrated a block diagram of the modeling method of the present disclosure, which is referred to as a systematic modeling technique. The general concept of the systematic modeling technique in the present disclosure results from the observation that, while process gains (steady-state behavior) vary with U's and Y's,( i.e., the gains are non-linear), the process dynamics seemingly vary with time only, (i.e., they can be modeled as locally linear, but time-varied). By utilizing non-linear models for the steady-state behavior and linear models for the dynamic behavior, several practical advantages result. They are as follows:

• [0056] 1. Completely rigorous models can be utilized for the steady-state part. This provides a credible basis for economic optimization.
• [0057] 2. The linear models for the dynamic part can be updated on-line, i.e., the dynamic parameters that are known to be time-varying can be adapted slowly.
• [0058] 3. The gains of the dynamic models and the gains of the steady-state models can be forced to be consistent (k=K).

[0059] With further reference to FIG. 2, there are provided a static or steady-state model 20 and a dynamic model 22. The static model 20, as described above, is a rigorous model that is trained on a large set of steady-state data. The static model 20 will receive a process input U and provide a predicted output Y. These are essentially steady-state values. The steady-state values at a given time are latched in various latches, an input latch 24 and an output latch 26. The latch 24 contains the steady-state value of the input U_ss, and the latch 26 contains the steady-state output value Y_ss. The dynamic model 22 is utilized to predict the behavior of the plant when a change is made from a steady-state value of Y_ss to a new value Y. The dynamic model 22 receives on the input the dynamic input value u and outputs a predicted dynamic value y. The value u is comprised of the difference between the new value U and the steady-state value in the latch 24, U_ss. This is derived from a subtraction circuit 30 which receives on the positive input thereof the output of the latch 24 and on the negative input thereof the new value of U. This therefore represents the delta change from the steady-state. Similarly, on the output the predicted overall dynamic value will be the sum of the output value of the dynamic model, y, and the steady-state output value stored in the latch 26, Y_ss. These two values are summed with a summing block 34 to provide a predicted output Y. The difference between the value output by the summing junction 34 and the predicted value output by the static model 20 is that the predicted value output by the summing junction 20 accounts for the dynamic operation of the system during a change. For example, to process the input values that are in the input vector U by the static model 20, the rigorous model, can take significantly more time than running a relatively simple dynamic model. The method utilized in the present disclosure is to force the gain of the dynamic model 22 k_d to equal the gain K_ss of the static model 20.

[0060] In the static model 20, there is provided a storage block 36 which contains the static coefficients associated with the static model 20 and also the associated gain value K_ss. Similarly, the dynamic model 22 has a storage area 38 that is operable to contain the dynamic coefficients and the gain value k_d. One of the important aspects of the present disclosure is a link block 40 that is operable to modify the coefficients in the storage area 38 to force the value of k_d to be equal to the value of K_ss. Additionally, there is an approximation block 41 that allows approximation of the dynamic gain k_d between the modification updates.

[0061] The linear dynamic model 22 can generally be represented by the following equations:

[0062] $\begin{array}{cc}\delta y\left(t\right)=\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i\delta u\left(t-d-i\right)-\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\delta y\left(t-i\right)\mathrm{where}:& \left(007\right)\\ \delta y\left(t\right)=y\left(t\right)-Y_{\mathrm{ss}}& \left(008\right)\\ \delta u\left(t\right)=u\left(t\right)-u_{\mathrm{ss}}& \left(009\right)\end{array}$
and t is time, a_i and b_i are real numbers, d is a time delay, u(t) is an input and y(t) an output. The gain is represented by:

[0063] $\begin{array}{cc}\frac{y\left(B\right)}{u\left(B\right)}=k=\frac{\left(\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i{B}^{i-1}\right)B^d}{1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i{B}^{i-1}}& \left(10\right)\end{array}$
where B is the backward shift operator B(x(t))=x(t−1), t=time, the a_i and b_i are real numbers, I is the number of discreet time intervals in the dead-time of the process, and n is the order of the model. This is a general representation of a linear dynamic model, as contained in George E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins, “TIME SERIES ANALYSIS forecasting and control”, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1976, Section 10.2, Page 345. This reference is incorporated herein by reference.

[0064] The gain of this model can be calculated by setting the value of B equal to a value of “1”. The gain will then be defined by the following equation:

[0065] $\begin{array}{cc}{\left[\frac{y\left(B\right)}{u\left(B\right)}\right]}_{B=1}=k_d=\frac{\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i}{1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i}& \left(11\right)\end{array}$

[0066] The a_i contain the dynamic signature of the process, its unforced, natural response characteristic. They are independent of the process gain. The b_i contain part of the dynamic signature of the process; however, they alone contain the result of the forced response. The b_i determine the gain k of the dynamic model. See: J. L. Shearer, A. T. Murphy, and H. H. Richardson, “Introduction to System Dynamics”, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., 1967, Chapter 12. , This reference is incorporated herein by reference.

[0067] Since the gain K_ss of the steady-state model is known, the gain k_d of the dynamic model can be forced to match the gain of the steady-state model by scaling the b_i parameters. The values of the static and dynamic gains are set equal with the value of b_i scaled by the ratio of the two gains:

[0068] $\begin{array}{cc}{\left(b_i\right)}_{\mathrm{scaled}}={\left(b_i\right)}_{\mathrm{old}}\left(\frac{K_{\mathrm{ss}}}{k_d}\right)& \left(12\right)\\ {\left(b_i\right)}_{\mathrm{scaled}}=\frac{{\left(b_i\right)}_{\mathrm{old}}{K}_{\mathrm{ss}}\left(1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\right)}{\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i}& \left(13\right)\end{array}$
This makes the dynamic model consistent with its steady-state counterpart. Therefore, each time the steady-state value changes, this corresponds to a gain K_ss of the steady-state model. This value can then be utilized to update the gain k_d of the dynamic model and, therefore, compensate for the errors associated with the dynamic model wherein the value of k_d is determined based on perturbations in the plant on a given set of operating conditions. Since all operating conditions are not modeled, the step of varying the gain will account for changes in the steady-state starting points.

[0069] Referring now to FIGS. 3a–3d, there are illustrated plots of the system operating in response to a step function wherein the input value U changes from a value of 100 to a value of 110. In FIG. 3a, the value of 100 is referred to as the previous steady-state value U_ss. In FIG. 3b, the value of u varies from a value of 0 to a value of 10, this representing the delta between the steady-state value of U_ss to the level of 110, represented by reference numeral 42 in FIG. 3a. Therefore, in FIG. 3b the value of u will go from 0 at a level 44, to a value of 10 at a level 46. In FIG. 3c, the output Y is represented as having a steady-state value Y_ss of 4 at a level 48. When the input value U rises to the level 42 with a value of 110, the output value will rise. This is a predicted value. The predicted value which is the proper output value is represented by a level 50, which level 50 is at a value of 5. Since the steady-state value is at a value of 4, this means that the dynamic system must predict a difference of a value of 1. This is represented by FIG. 3d wherein the dynamic output value y varies from a level 54 having a value of 0 to a level 56 having a value of 1.0. However, without the gain scaling, the dynamic model could, by way of example, predict a value for y of 1.5, represented by dashed level 58, if the steady-state values were outside of the range in which the dynamic model was trained. This would correspond to a value of 5.5 at a level 60 in the plot of FIG. 3c. It can be seen that the dynamic model merely predicts the behavior of the plant from a starting point to a stopping point, not taking into consideration the steady-state values. It assumes that the steady-state values are those that it was trained upon. If the gain k_d were not scaled, then the dynamic model would assume that the steady-state values at the starting point were the same that it was trained upon. However, the gain scaling link between the steady-state model and the dynamic model allow the gain to be scaled and the parameter b_i to be scaled such that the dynamic operation is scaled and a more accurate prediction is made which accounts for the dynamic properties of the system.

[0070] Referring now to FIG. 4, there is illustrated a block diagram of a method for determining the parameters a_i, b_i. This is usually achieved through the use of an identification algorithm, which is conventional. This utilizes the (u(t),y(t)) pairs to obtain the a_i and b_i parameters. In the preferred embodiment, a recursive identification method is utilized where the a_i and b_i parameters are updated with each new (u_i(t),y_i(t)) pair. See: T. Eykhoff, “System Identification”, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1974, Pages 38 and 39, et. seq., and H. Kurz and W. Godecke, “Digital Parameter-Adaptive Control Processes with Unknown Dead Time”, Automatica, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1981, pp. 245–252, which references are incorporated herein by reference.

[0071] In the technique of FIG. 4, the dynamic model 22 has the output thereof input to a parameter-adaptive control algorithm block 60 which adjusts the parameters in the coefficient storage block 38, which also receives the scaled values of k, b_i. This is a system that is updated on a periodic basis, as defined by timing block 62. The control algorithm 60 utilizes both the input u and the output y for the purpose of determining and updating the parameters in the storage area 38.

[0072] Referring now to FIG. 5, there is illustrated a block diagram of the preferred method.

[0073] The program is initiated in a block 68 and then proceeds to a function block 70 to update the parameters a_i, b_i utilizing the (u(I),y(I)) pairs. Once these are updated, the program flows to a function block 72 wherein the steady-state gain factor K is received, and then to a function block 74 to set the dynamic gain to the steady state gain, i.e., provide the scaling function described hereinabove. This is performed after the update. This procedure can be used for on-line identification, non-linear dynamic model prediction and adaptive control.

[0074] Referring now to FIG. 6, there is illustrated a block diagram of one application of the present disclosure utilizing a control environment. A plant 78 is provided which receives input values u(t) and outputs an output vector y(t). The plant 78 also has measurable state variables s(t). A predictive model 80 is provided which receives the input values u(t) and the state variables s(t) in addition to the output value y(t). The steady-state model 80 is operable to output a predicted value of both y(t) and also of a future input value u(t+1). This constitutes a steady-state portion of the system. The predicted steady-state input value is U_ss with the predicted steady-state output value being Y_ss. In a conventional control scenario, the steady-state model 80 would receive as an external input a desired value of the output y^d(t) which is the desired value that the overall control system seeks to achieve. This is achieved by controlling a distributed control system (DCS) 86 to produce a desired input to the plant. This is referred to as u(t+1), a future value. Without considering the dynamic response, the predictive model 80, a steady-state model, will provide the steady-state values. However, when a change is desired, this change will effectively be viewed as a “step response”.

[0075] To facilitate the dynamic control aspect, a dynamic controller 82 is provided which is operable to receive the input u(t), the output value y(t) and also the steady-state values U_ss and Y_ss and generate the output u(t+1). The dynamic controller effectively generates the dynamic response between the changes, i.e., when the steady-state value changes from an initial steady-state value U_ssⁱ, Yⁱ_ss to a final steady-state value U^f_ss, Y^f_ss.

[0076] During the operation of the system, the dynamic controller 82 is operable in accordance with the embodiment of FIG. 2 to update the dynamic parameters of the dynamic controller 82 in a block 88 with a gain link block 90, which utilizes the value K_ss from a steady-state parameter block in order to scale the parameters utilized by the dynamic controller 82, again in accordance with the above described method. In this manner, the control function can be realized. In addition, the dynamic controller 82 has the operation thereof optimized such that the path traveled between the initial and final steady-state values is achieved with the use of the optimizer 83 in view of optimizer constraints in a block 85. In general, the predicted model (steady-state model) 80 provides a control network function that is operable to predict the future input values. Without the dynamic controller 82, this is a conventional control network which is generally described in U.S. Pat. No. 5,353,207, issued Oct. 4, 1994, to the present assignee, which patent is incorporated herein by reference.

[0077] For the modeling techniques described thus far, consistency between the steady-state and dynamic models is maintained by rescaling the b_i parameters at each time step utilizing equation 13. If the systematic model is to be utilized in a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm, maintaining consistency may be computationally expensive. These types of algorithms are described in C. E. Garcia, D. M Prett and M. Morari. Model predictive control: theory and practice—a survey, Automatica, 25:335–348, 1989; D. E. Seborg, T. F. Edgar, and D. A. Mellichamp. Process Dynamics and Control. John Wiley and Sons, New York, N.Y., 1989. These references are incorporated herein by reference. For example, if the dynamic gain k_d is computed from a neural network steady-state model, it would be necessary to execute the neural network module each time the model was iterated in the MPC algorithm. Due to the potentially large number of model iterations for certain MPC problems, it could be computationally expensive to maintain a consistent model. In this case, it would be better to use an approximate model which does not rely on enforcing consistencies at each iteration of the model.

[0078] Referring now to FIG. 7, there is illustrated a diagram for a change between steady state values. As illustrated, the steady-state model will make a change from a steady-state value at a line 100 to a steady-state value at a line 102. A transition between the two steady-state values can result in unknown settings. The only way to insure that the settings for the dynamic model between the two steady-state values, an initial steady-state value K_ssⁱ and a final steady-state gain K_ss^f, would be to utilize a step operation, wherein the dynamic gain k_d was adjusted at multiple positions during the change. However, this may be computationally expensive. As will be described hereinbelow, an approximation algorithm is utilized for approximating the dynamic behavior between the two steady-state values utilizing a quadratic relationship. This is defined as a behavior line 104, which is disposed between an envelope 106, which behavior line 104 will be described hereinbelow.

[0079] Referring now to FIG. 8, there is illustrated a diagrammatic view of the system undergoing numerous changes in steady-state value as represented by a stepped line 108. The stepped line 108 is seen to vary from a first steady-state value at a level 110 to a value at a level 112 and then down to a value at a level 114, up to a value at a level 116 and then down to a final value at a level 118. Each of these transitions can result in unknown states. With the approximation algorithm that will be described hereinbelow, it can be seen that, when a transition is made from level 110 to level 112, an approximation curve for the dynamic behavior 120 is provided. When making a transition from level 114 to level 116, an approximation gain curve 124 is provided to approximate the steady state gains between the two levels 114 and 116. For making the transition from level 116 to level 118, an approximation gain curve 126 for the steady-state gain is provided. It can therefore be seen that the approximation curves 120–126 account for transitions between steady-state values that are determined by the network, it being noted that these are approximations which primarily maintain the steady-state gain within some type of error envelope, the envelope 106 in FIG. 7.

[0080] The approximation is provided by the block 41 noted in FIG. 2 and can be designed upon a number of criteria, depending upon the problem that it will be utilized to solve. The system in the preferred embodiment, which is only one example, is designed to satisfy the following criteria:

• [0081] 1. Computational Complexity: The approximate systematic model will be used in a Model Predictive Control algorithm, therefore, it is required to have low computational complexity.
• [0082] 2. Localized Accuracy: The steady-state model is accurate in localized regions. These regions represent the steady-state operating regimes of the process. The steady-state model is significantly less accurate outside these localized regions.
• [0083] 3. Final Steady-State: Given a steady-state set point change, an optimization algorithm which uses the steady-state model will be used to compute the steady-state inputs required to achieve the set point. Because of item 2, it is assumed that the initial and final steady-states associated with a set-point change are located in regions accurately modeled by the steady-state model.

[0084] Given the noted criteria, an approximate systematic model can be constructed by enforcing consistency of the steady-state and dynamic model at the initial and final steady-state associated with a set point change and utilizing a linear approximation at points in between the two steady-states. This approximation guarantees that the model is accurate in regions where the steady-state model is well known and utilizes a linear approximation in regions where the steady-state model is known to be less accurate. In addition, the resulting model has low computational complexity. For purposes of this proof, Equation 13 is modified as follows:

[0085] $\begin{array}{cc}{b}_{i,\mathrm{scaled}}=\frac{b_i{K}_{\mathrm{ss}}\left(u\left(t-d-1\right)\right)\left(1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\right)}{\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i}& \left(14\right)\end{array}$

[0086] This new equation 14 utilizes K_ss(u(t−d−1)) instead of K_ss(u(t)) as the consistent gain, resulting in a systematic model which is delay invariant.

[0087] The approximate systematic model is based upon utilizing the gains associated with the initial and final steady-state values of a set-point change. The initial steady-state gain is denoted Kⁱ_ss while the initial steady-state input is given by Uⁱ_ss. The final steady-state gain is K^f_ss and the final input is U^f_ss. Given these values, a linear approximation to the gain is given by:

[0088] $\begin{array}{cc}{K}_{\mathrm{ss}}\left(u\left(t\right)\right)=K_{\mathrm{ss}}^i+\frac{K_{\mathrm{ss}}^f-K_{\mathrm{ss}}^i}{U_{\mathrm{ss}}^f-U_{\mathrm{ss}}^i}\left(u\left(t\right)-U_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\right).& \left(15\right)\end{array}$
Substituting this approximation into Equation 13 and replacing u(t−d−1)−uⁱ by δu(t−d−1) yields:

[0089] $\begin{array}{cc}{\tilde{b}}_{j,\mathrm{scaled}}=\frac{b_j{K}_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\left(1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\right)}{\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i}+\frac{1}{2}\frac{b_j\left(1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\right)\left(K_{\mathrm{ss}}^f-K_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\right)}{\left(\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i\right)\left(U_{\mathrm{ss}}^f-U_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\right)}\delta u\left(t-d-i\right).& \left(16\right)\end{array}$
To simplify the expression, define the variable b_j-Bar as:

[0090] $\begin{array}{cc}{\stackrel{\_}{b}}_j=\frac{b_j{K}_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\left(1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\right)}{\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i}& \left(17\right)\end{array}$
and g_j as:

[0091] $\begin{array}{cc}{g}_j=\frac{b_j\left(1+\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\right)\left(K_{\mathrm{ss}}^f-K_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\right)}{\left(\sum _{i=1}^n{b}_i\right)\left(U_{\mathrm{ss}}^f-U_{\mathrm{ss}}^i\right)}& \left(18\right)\end{array}$
Equation 16 may be written as:
{tilde over (b)}_j,scaled={overscore (b)}_j+g_jδu(t−d−i).  (19)
Finally, substituting the scaled b's back into the original difference Equation 7, the following expression for the approximate systematic model is obtained:

[0092] $\begin{array}{cc}\delta y\left(t\right)=\sum _{i=1}^n\stackrel{\_}{b_i}\delta u\left(t-d-i\right)+\sum _{i=1}^n{g}_i\delta u\left(t-d-i^2\right)\delta u\left(t-d-i\right)-\sum _{i=1}^n{a}_i\delta y\left(t-i\right)& \left(20\right)\end{array}$
The linear approximation for gain results in a quadratic difference equation for the output. Given Equation 20, the approximate systematic model is shown to be of low computational complexity. It may be used in a MPC algorithm to efficiently compute the required control moves for a transition from one steady-state to another after a set-point change. Note that this applies to the dynamic gain variations between steady-state transitions and not to the actual path values.

[0093] Referring now to FIG. 9, there is illustrated a block diagram of the prediction engine for the dynamic controller 82 of FIG. 6. The prediction engine is operable to essentially predict a value of y(t) as the predicted future value y(t+1). Since the prediction engine must determine what the value of the output y(t) is at each future value between two steady-state values, it is necessary to perform these in a “step” manner. Therefore, there will be k steps from a value of zero to a value of N, which value at k=N is the value at the “horizon”, the desired value. This, as will be described hereinbelow, is an iterative process, it being noted that the terminology for “(t+1)” refers to an incremental step, with an incremental step for the dynamic controller being smaller than an incremented step for the steady-state model. For the steady-state model, “y(t+N)” for the dynamic model will be, “y(t+1)” for the steady state The value y(t+1) is defined as follows:
y(t+1)=a₁y(t)+a₂y(t−1)+b₁u(t−d−1)+b₂u(t−d−2)  (021)

[0094] With further reference to FIG. 9, the input values u(t) for each (u,y) pair are input to a delay line 140. The output of the delay line provides the input value u(t) delayed by a delay value “d”. There are provided only two operations for multiplication with the coefficients b₁ and b₂, such that only two values u(t) and u(t−1) are required. These are both delayed and then multiplied by the coefficients b₁ and b₂ and then input to a summing block 141. Similarly, the output value y^p(t) is input to a delay line 142, there being two values required for multiplication with the coefficients a₁ and a₂. The output of this multiplication is then input to the summing block 141. The input to the delay line 142 is either the actual input value y^a(t) or the iterated output value of the summation block 141, which is the previous value computed by the dynamic controller 82. Therefore, the summing block 141 will output the predicted value y(t+1) which will then be input to a multiplexor 144. The multiplexor 144 is operable to select the actual output y^a(t) on the first operation and, thereafter, select the output of the summing block 141. Therefore, for a step value of k=0 the value y^a(t) will be selected by the multiplexor 144 and will be latched in a latch 145. The latch 145 will provide the predicted value y^p(t+k) on an output 146. This is the predicted value of y(t) for a given k that is input back to the input of delay line 142 for multiplication with the coefficients a₁ and a₂. This is iterated for each value of k from k=0 to k=N.

[0095] The a₁ and a₂ values are fixed, as described above, with the b₁ and b₂ values scaled. This scaling operation is performed by the coefficient modification block 38. However, this only defines the beginning steady-state value and the final steady-state value, with the dynamic controller and the optimization routines described in the present application defining how the dynamic controller operates between the steady-state values and also what the gain of the dynamic controller is. The gain specifically is what determines the modification operation performed by the coefficient modification block 38.

[0096] In FIG. 9, the coefficients in the coefficient modification block 38 are modified as described hereinabove with the information that is derived from the steady-state model. The steady-state model is operated in a control application, and is comprised in part of a forward steady-state model 141 which is operable to receive the steady-state input value U_ss(t) and predict the steady-state output value Y_ss(t). This predicted value is utilized in an inverse steady-state model 143 to receive the desired value y^d(t) and the predicted output of the steady-state model 141 and predict a future steady-state input value or manipulated value U_ss(t+N) and also a future steady-state input value Y_ss(t+N) in addition to providing the steady-state gain K_ss. As described hereinabove, these are utilized to generate scaled b-values. These b-values are utilized to define the gain k_d of the dynamic model. In can therefore be seen that this essentially takes a linear dynamic model with a fixed gain and allows it to have a gain thereof modified by a non-linear model as the operating point is moved through the output space.

[0097] Referring now to FIG. 10, there is illustrated a block diagram of the dynamic controller and optimizer. The dynamic controller includes a dynamic model 149 which basically defines the predicted value y^p(k) as a function of the inputs y(t), s(t) and u(t). This was essentially the same model that was described hereinabove with reference to FIG. 9. The model 149 predicts the output values y^p(k) between the two steady-state values, as will be described hereinbelow. The model 149 is predefined and utilizes an identification algorithm to identify the a₁, a₂, b₁ and b₂ coefficients during training. Once these are identified in a training and identification procedure, these are “fixed”. However, as described hereinabove, the gain of the dynamic model is modified by scaling the coefficients b₁ and b₂. This gain scaling is not described with respect to the optimization operation of FIG. 10, although it can be incorporated in the optimization operation.

[0098] The output of model 149 is input to the negative input of a summing block 150. Summing block 150 sums the predicted output y^p(k) with the desired output y^d(t). In effect, the desired value of y^d(t) is effectively the desired steady-state value Y^f_ss, although it can be any desired value. The output of the summing block 150 comprises an error value which is essentially the difference between the desired value y^d(t) and the predicted value y^p(k). The error value is modified by an error modification block 151, as will be described hereinbelow, in accordance with error modification parameters in a block 152. The modified error value is then input to an inverse model 153, which basically performs an optimization routine to predict a change in the input value u(t). In effect, the optimizer 153 is utilized in conjunction with the model 149 to minimize the error output by summing block 150. Any optimization function can be utilized, such as a Monte Carlo procedure. However, in the present disclosure, a gradient calculation is utilized. In the gradient method, the gradient ∂(y)/∂(u) is calculated and then a gradient solution performed as follows:

[0099] $\begin{array}{cc}\Delta u_{\mathrm{new}}=\Delta u_{\mathrm{old}}+\left(\frac{\partial \left(y\right)}{\partial \left(u\right)}\right)\times E& \left(022\right)\end{array}$

[0100] The optimization function is performed by the inverse model 153 in accordance with optimization constraints in a block 154. An iteration procedure is performed with an iterate block 155 which is operable to perform an iteration with the combination of the inverse model 153 and the predictive model 149 and output on an output line 156 the future value u(t+k+1). For k=0, this will be the initial steady-state value and for k=N, this will be the value at the horizon, or at the next steady-state value. During the iteration procedure, the previous value of u(t+k) has the change value Au added thereto. This value is utilized for that value of k until the error is within the appropriate levels. Once it is at the appropriate level, the next u(t+k) is input to the model 149 and the value thereof optimized with the iterate block 155. Once the iteration procedure is done, it is latched. As will be described hereinbelow, this is a combination of modifying the error such that the actual error output by the block 150 is not utilized by the optimizer 153 but, rather, a modified error is utilized. Alternatively, different optimization constraints can be utilized, which are generated by the block 154, these being described hereinbelow.

[0101] Referring now to FIGS. 11a and 11b, there are illustrated plots of the output y(t+k) and the input u_k(t+k+1), for each k from the initial steady-state value to the horizon steady-state value at k=N. With specific reference to FIG. 11a, it can be seen that the optimization procedure is performed utilizing multiple passes. In the first pass, the actual value u^a(t+k) for each k is utilized to determine the values of y(t+k) for each u,y pair. This is then accumulated and the values processed through the inverse model 153 and the iterate block 155 to minimize the error. This generates a new set of inputs u_k(t+k+1) illustrated in FIG. 11b. Therefore, the optimization after pass 1 generates the values of u(t+k+1) for the second pass. In the second pass, the values are again optimized in accordance with the various constraints to again generate another set of values for u(t+k+1). This continues until the overall objective function is reached. This objective function is a combination of the operations as a function of the error and the operations as a function of the constraints, wherein the optimization constraints may control the overall operation of the inverse model 153 or the error modification parameters in block 152 may control the overall operation. Each of the optimization constraints will be described in more detail hereinbelow.

[0102] Referring now to FIG. 12, there is illustrated a plot of y^d(t) and y^p(t). The predicted value is represented by a waveform 170 and the desired output is represented by a waveform 172, both plotted over the horizon between an initial steady-state value Yⁱ_ss and a final steady-state value Y^f_ss. It can be seen that the desired waveform prior to k=0 is substantially equal to the predicted output. At k=0, the desired output waveform 172 raises its level, thus creating an error. It can be seen that at k=0, the error is large and the system then must adjust the manipulated variables to minimize the error and force the predicted value to the desired value. The objective function for the calculation of error is of the form:

[0103] $\begin{array}{cc}\underset{\Delta u_{\mathrm{il}}}{\min }\sum _j\sum _k(A_j*{\left({\overrightarrow{y}}^p\left(t\right)-{\overrightarrow{y}}^d\left(t\right)\right)}^2& \left(23\right)\end{array}$
where: Du_i1 is the change in input variable (IV) I at time interval 1

[0104] A_j is the weight factor for control variable (CV) j

[0105] y^p(t) is the predicted value of CV j at time interval k

[0106] y^d(t) is the desired value of CV j.

[0107] The present system utilizes what is referred to as “trajectory weighting” which encompasses the concept that one does not put a constant degree of importance on the future predicted process behavior matching the desired behavior at every future time set, i.e., at low k-values. One approach could be that one is more tolerant of error in the near term (low k-values) than farther into the future (high k-values). The basis for this logic is that the final desired behavior is more important than the path taken to arrive at the desired behavior, otherwise the path traversed would be a step function. This is illustrated in FIG. 13 wherein three possible predicted behaviors are illustrated, one represented by a curve 174 which is acceptable, one is represented by a different curve 176, which is also acceptable and one represented by a curve 178, which is unacceptable since it goes above the desired level on curve 172. Curves 174–178 define the desired behavior over the horizon for k=1 to N.

[0108] In Equation 23, the predicted curves 174–178 would be achieved by forcing the weighting factors A_j to be time varying. This is illustrated in FIG. 14. In FIG. 14, the weighting factor A as a function of time is shown to have an increasing value as time and the value of k increases. This results in the errors at the beginning of the horizon (low k-values) being weighted much less than the errors at the end of the horizon (high k-values). The result is more significant than merely redistributing the weights out to the end of the control horizon at k=N. This method also adds robustness, or the ability to handle a mismatch between the process and the prediction model. Since the largest error is usually experienced at the beginning of the horizon, the largest changes in the independent variables will also occur at this point. If there is a mismatch between the process and the prediction (model error), these initial moves will be large and somewhat incorrect, which can cause poor performance and eventually instability. By utilizing the trajectory weighting method, the errors at the beginning of the horizon are weighted less, resulting in smaller changes in the independent variables and, thus, more robustness.

[0109] Referring now to FIG. 15, there are illustrated constraints that can be placed upon the error. There is illustrated a predicted curve 180 and a desired curve 182, desired curve 182 essentially being a flat line. It is desirable for the error between curve 180 and 182 to be minimized. Whenever a transient occurs at t=0, changes of some sort will be required. It can be seen that prior to t=0, curve 182 and 180 are substantially the same, there being very little error between the two. However, after some type of transition, the error will increase. If a rigid solution were utilized, the system would immediately respond to this large error and attempt to reduce it in as short a time as possible. However, a constraint frustum boundary 184 is provided which allows the error to be large at t=0 and reduces it to a minimum level at a point 186. At point 186, this is the minimum error, which can be set to zero or to a non-zero value, corresponding to the noise level of the output variable to be controlled. This therefore encompasses the same concepts as the trajectory weighting method in that final future behavior is considered more important that near term behavior. The ever shrinking minimum and/or maximum bounds converge from a slack position at t=0 to the actual final desired behavior at a point 186 in the constraint frustum method.

[0110] The difference between constraint frustums and trajectory weighting is that constraint frustums are an absolute limit (hard constraint) where any behavior satisfying the limit is just as acceptable as any other behavior that also satisfies the limit. Trajectory weighting is a method where differing behaviors have graduated importance in time. It can be seen that the constraints provided by the technique of FIG. 15 requires that the value y^p(t) is prevented from exceeding the constraint value. Therefore, if the difference between y^d(t) and y^p(t) is greater than that defined by the constraint boundary, then the optimization routine will force the input values to a value that will result in the error being less than the constraint value. In effect, this is a “clamp” on the difference between y^p(t) and y^d(t). In the trajectory weighting method, there is no “clamp” on the difference therebetween; rather, there is merely an attenuation factor placed on the error before input to the optimization network.

[0111] Trajectory weighting can be compared with other methods, there being two methods that will be described herein, the dynamic matrix control (DMC) algorithm and the identification and command (IdCom) algorithm. The DMC algorithm utilizes an optimization to solve the control problem by minimizing the objective function:

[0112] $\begin{array}{cc}\underset{\Delta U_{\mathrm{il}}}{\min }\sum _j\sum _k(A_j*\left({\overrightarrow{y}}^P\left(t\right)-{\overrightarrow{y}}^D\left(t\right)\right)+\sum _i{B}_i*\sum _1{\left(\Delta U_{\mathrm{il}}\right)}^2& \left(24\right)\end{array}$
where B_i is the move suppression factor for input variable I. This is described in Cutler, C. R. and B. L. Ramaker, Dynamic Matrix Control—A Computer Control Algorithm, AIChE National Meeting, Houston, Tex. (April 1979), which is incorporated herein by reference.

[0113] It is noted that the weights A_j and desired values y^d(t) are constant for each of the control variables. As can be seen from Equation 24, the optimization is a trade off between minimizing errors between the control variables and their desired values and minimizing the changes in the independent variables. Without the move suppression term, the independent variable changes resulting from the set point changes would be quite large due to the sudden and immediate error between the predicted and desired values. Move suppression limits the independent variable changes, but for all circumstances, not just the initial errors.

[0114] The IdCom algorithm utilizes a different approach. Instead of a constant desired value, a path is defined for the control variables to take from the current value to the desired value. This is illustrated in FIG. 16. This path is a more gradual transition from one operation point to the next. Nevertheless, it is still a rigidly defined path that must be met. The objective function for this algorithm takes the form:

[0115] $\begin{array}{cc}\underset{\Delta U_{\mathrm{il}}}{\min }\sum _j\sum _k{\left(A_j*\left(Y^{P_{\mathrm{jk}}}-y_{\mathrm{refjk}}\right)\right)}^2& \left(25\right)\end{array}$
This technique is described in Richalet, J. A. Rault, J. L. Testud, and J Papon, Model Predictive Heuristic Control: Applications to Industrial Processes, Automatica, 14, 413–428 (1978), which is incorporated herein by reference. It should be noted that the requirement of Equation 25 at each time interval is sometimes difficult. In fact, for control variables that behave similarly, this can result in quite erratic independent variable changes due to the control algorithm attempting to endlessly meet the desired path exactly.

[0116] Control algorithms such as the DMC algorithm that utilize a form of matrix inversion in the control calculation, cannot handle control variable hard constraints directly. They must treat them separately, usually in the form of a steady-state linear program. Because this is done as a steady-state problem, the constraints are time invariant by definition. Moreover, since the constraints are not part of a control calculation, there is no protection against the controller violating the hard constraints in the transient while satisfying them at steady-state.

[0117] With further reference to FIG. 15, the boundaries at the end of the envelope can be defined as described hereinbelow. One technique described in the prior art, W. Edwards Deming, “Out of the Crisis,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Advanced Engineering Study, Cambridge Mass., Fifth Printing, September 1988, pages 327–329, describes various Monte Carlo experiments that set forth the premise that any control actions taken to correct for common process variation actually may have a negative impact, which action may work to increase variability rather than the desired effect of reducing variation of the controlled processes. Given that any process has an inherent accuracy, there should be no basis to make a change based on a difference that lies within the accuracy limits of the system utilized to control it. At present, commercial controllers fail to recognize the fact that changes are undesirable, and continually adjust the process, treating all deviation from target, no matter how small, as a special cause deserving of control actions, i.e., they respond to even minimal changes. Over adjustment of the manipulated variables therefore will result, and increase undesirable process variation. By placing limits on the error with the present filtering algorithms described herein, only controller actions that are proven to be necessary are allowed, and thus, the process can settle into a reduced variation free from unmerited controller disturbances. The following discussion will deal with one technique for doing this, this being based on statistical parameters.

[0118] Filters can be created that prevent model-based controllers from taking any action in the case where the difference between the controlled variable measurement and the desired target value are not significant. The significance level is defined by the accuracy of the model upon which the controller is statistically based. This accuracy is determined as a function of the standard deviation of the error and a predetermined confidence level. The confidence level is based upon the accuracy of the training. Since most training sets for a neural network-based model will have “holes” therein, this will result in inaccuracies within the mapped space. Since a neural network is an empirical model, it is only as accurate as the training data set. Even though the model may not have been trained upon a given set of inputs, it will extrapolate the output and predict a value given a set of inputs, even though these inputs are mapped across a space that is questionable. In these areas, the confidence level in the predicted output is relatively low. This is described in detail in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 08/025,184, filed Mar. 2, 1993, which is incorporated herein by reference.

[0119] Referring now to FIG. 17, there is illustrated a flowchart depicting the statistical method for generating the filter and defining the end point 186 in FIG. 15. The flowchart is initiated at a start block 200 and then proceeds to a function block 202, wherein the control values u(t+1) are calculated. However, prior to acquiring these control values, the filtering operation must be a processed. The program will flow to a function block 204 to determine the accuracy of the controller. This is done off-line by analyzing the model predicted values compared to the actual values, and calculating the standard deviation of the error in areas where the target is undisturbed. The model accuracy of e_m(t) is defined as follows:
e_m(t)=a(t)−p(t)  (026)
where: e_m=model error,

[0120] a=actual value

[0121] p=model predicted value

The model accuracy is defined by the following equation:
Acc=H*σ_m  (027)
where: Acc=accuracy in terms of minimal detector error

[0122] $H=\mathrm{significance}\mathrm{level}=167\%\mathrm{confidence}=295\%\mathrm{confidence}=399.5\%\mathrm{confidence}$

[0123] σ_m=standard deviation of e_m(t).

[0124] The program then flows to a function block 206 to compare the controller error e_c(t) with the model accuracy. This is done by taking the difference between the predicted value (measured value) and the desired value. This is the controller error calculation as follows:
e_c(t)=d(t)−m(t)  (028)
where: e_c=controller error

[0125] d=desired value

[0126] m=measured value

[0127] The program will then flow to a decision block 208 to determine if the error is within the accuracy limits. The determination as to whether the error is within the accuracy limits is done utilizing Shewhart limits. With this type of limit and this type of filter, a determination is made as to whether the controller error e_c(t) meets the following conditions: e_c(t)≧−1*Acc and e_c(t)≦+1*Acc, then either the control action is suppressed or not suppressed. If it is within the accuracy limits, then the control action is suppressed and the program flows along a “Y” path. If not, the program will flow along the “N” path to function block 210 to accept the u(t+1) values. If the error lies within the controller accuracy, then the program flows along the “Y” path from decision block 208 to a function block 212 to calculate the running accumulation of errors. This is formed utilizing a CUSUM approach. The controller CUSUM calculations are done as follows:
S_low=min (0, S_low(t−1)+d(t)−m(t))−Σ(m)+k)  (029)
S_hi=max (0, S_hi(t−1)+[d(t)−m(t))−Σ(m)]−k)  (030)
where: S_hj=Running Positive Qsum

[0128] S_low=Running Negative Qsum

[0129] k=Tuning factor—minimal detectable change threshold with the following defined:

[0130] Hq=significance level. Values of (j,k) can be found so that the CUSUM control chart will have significance levels equivalent to Shewhart control charts.

[0131] The program will then flow to a decision block 214 to determine if the CUSUM limits check out, i.e., it will determine if the Qsum values are within the limits. If the Qsum, the accumulated sum error, is within the established limits, the program will then flow along the “Y” path. And, if it is not within the limits, it will flow along the “N” path to accept the controller values u(t+1). The limits are determined if both the value of S_hi≧+1*Hq and S_low≦−1*Hq. Both of these actions will result in this program flowing along the “Y” path. If it flows along the “N” path, the sum is set equal to zero and then the program flows to the function block 210. If the Qsum values are within the limits, it flows along the “Y” path to a function block 218 wherein a determination is made as to whether the user wishes to perturb the process. If so, the program will flow along the “Y” path to the function block 210 to accept the control values u(t+1). If not, the program will flow along the “N” path from decision block 218 to a function block 222 to suppress the controller values u(t+1). The decision block 218, when it flows along the “Y” path, is a process that allows the user to re-identify the model for on-line adaptation, i.e., retrain the model. This is for the purpose of data collection and once the data has been collected, the system is then reactivated.

[0132] Referring now to FIG. 18, there is illustrated a block diagram of the overall optimization procedure. In the first step of the procedure, the initial steady-state values {Y_ssⁱ, U_ssⁱ} and the final steady-state values {Y_ss^f, U_ss^f} are determined, as defined in blocks 226 and 228, respectively. In some calculations, both the initial and the final steady-state values are required. The initial steady-state values are utilized to define the coefficients aⁱ, bⁱ in a block 228. As described above, this utilizes the coefficient scaling of the b-coefficients. Similarly, the steady-state values in block 228 are utilized to define the coefficients a^f, b^f, it being noted that only the b-coefficients are also defined in a block 229. Once the beginning and end points are defined, it is then necessary to determine the path therebetween. This is provided by block 230 for path optimization. There are two methods for determining how the dynamic controller traverses this path. The first, as described above, is to define the approximate dynamic gain over the path from the initial gain to the final gain. As noted above, this can incur some instabilities. The second method is to define the input values over the horizon from the initial value to the final value such that the desired value Y_ss^f is achieved. Thereafter, the gain can be set for the dynamic model by scaling the b-coefficients. As noted above, this second method does not necessarily force the predicted value of the output y^p(t) along a defined path; rather, it defines the characteristics of the model as a function of the error between the predicted and actual values over the horizon from the initial value to the final or desired value. This effectively defines the input values for each point on the trajectory or, alternatively, the dynamic gain along the trajectory.

[0133] Referring now to FIG. 18a, there is illustrated a diagrammatic representation of the manner in which the path is mapped through the input and output space. The steady-state model is operable to predict both the output steady-state value Y_ssⁱ at a value of k=0, the initial steady-state value, and the output steady-state value Y_ssⁱ at a time t+N where k=N, the final steady-state value. At the initial steady-state value, there is defined a region 227, which region 227 comprises a surface in the output space in the proximity of the initial steady-state value, which initial steady-state value also lies in the output space. This defines the range over which the dynamic controller can operate and the range over which it is valid. At the final steady-state value, if the gain were not changed, the dynamic model would not be valid. However, by utilizing the steady-state model to calculate the steady-state gain at the final steady-state value and then force the gain of the dynamic model to equal that of the steady-state model, the dynamic model then becomes valid over a region 229, proximate the final steady-state value. This is at a value of k=N. The problem that arises is how to define the path between the initial and final steady-state values. One possibility, as mentioned hereinabove, is to utilize the steady-state model to calculate the steady-state gain at multiple points along the path between the initial steady-state value and the final steady-state value and then define the dynamic gain at those points. This could be utilized in an optimization routine, which could require a large number of calculations. If the computational ability were there, this would provide a continuous calculation for the dynamic gain along the path traversed between the initial steady-state value and the final steady-state value utilizing the steady-state gain. However, it is possible that the steady-state model is not valid in regions between the initial and final steady-state values, i.e., there is a low confidence level due to the fact that the training in those regions may not be adequate to define the model therein. Therefore, the dynamic gain is approximated in these regions, the primary goal being to have some adjustment of the dynamic model along the path between the initial and the final steady-state values during the optimization procedure. This allows the dynamic operation of the model to be defined. This is represented by a number of surfaces 225 as shown in phantom.

[0134] Referring now to FIG. 19, there is illustrated a flow chart depicting the optimization algorithm. The program is initiated at a start block 232 and then proceeds to a function block 234 to define the actual input values u^a(t) at the beginning of the horizon, this typically being the steady-state value U_ss. The program then flows to a function block 235 to generate the predicted values y^p(k) over the horizon for all k for the fixed input values. The program then flows to a function block 236 to generate the error E(k) over the horizon for all k for the previously generated y^p(k). These errors and the predicted values are then accumulated, as noted by function block 238. The program then flows to a function block 240 to optimize the value of u(t) for each value of k in one embodiment.

[0135] This will result in k-values for u(t). Of course, it is sufficient to utilize less calculations than the total k-calculations over the horizon to provide for a more efficient algorithm.

[0136] The results of this optimization will provide the predicted change Δu(t+k) for each value of k in a function block 242. The program then flows to a function block 243 wherein the value of u(t+k) for each u will be incremented by the value Δu(t+k). The program will then flow to a decision block 244 to determine if the objective function noted above is less than or equal to a desired value. If not, the program will flow back along an “N” path to the input of function block 235 to again make another pass. This operation was described above with respect to FIGS. 11a and 11b. When the objective function is in an acceptable level, the program will flow from decision block 244 along the “Y” path to a function block 245 to set the value of u(t+k) for all u. This defines the path. The program then flows to an End block 246.

[0137] Referring now to FIG. 20, there is illustrated a plot of the input space and the error associated therewith. The input space is comprised of two variables x₁ and x₂. The y-axis represents the function f(x₁, x₂). In the plane of x₁ and x₂, there is illustrated a region 250, which represents the training data set. Areas outside of the region 250 constitute regions of no data, i.e., a low confidence level region. The function Y will have an error associated therewith. This is represented by a plane 252. However, the error in the plane 250 is only valid in a region 254, which corresponds to the region 250. Areas outside of region 254 on plane 252 have an unknown error associated therewith. As a result, whenever the network is operated outside of the region 250 with the error region 254, the confidence level in the network is low. Of course, the confidence level will not abruptly change once outside of the known data regions but, rather, decreases as the distance from the known data in the training set increases. This is represented in FIG. 21 wherein the confidence is defined as α(x). It can be seen from FIG. 21 that the confidence level α(x) is high in regions overlying the region 250.

[0138] Once the system is operating outside of the training data regions, i.e., in a low confidence region, the accuracy of the neural net is relatively low. In accordance with one aspect of the preferred embodiment, a first principles model g(x) is utilized to govern steady-state operation. The switching between the neural network model f(x) and the first principle models g(x) is not an abrupt switching but, rather, it is a mixture of the two.

[0139] The steady-state gain relationship is defined in Equation 7 and is set forth in a more simple manner as follows:

[0140] $\begin{array}{cc}K\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)=\frac{\partial \left(f\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)}{\partial \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)}& \left(031\right)\end{array}$
A new output function Y(u) is defined to take into account the confidence factor α(u) as follows:
Y({right arrow over (u)})=α({right arrow over (u)}).f({right arrow over (u)})+(1−α({right arrow over (u)}))g({right arrow over (u)})  (032)
where: α(u)=confidence in model f (u)

[0141] α(u) in the range of 0→1

[0142] α(u)E ε {0,1}

This will give rise to the relationship:

[0143] $\begin{array}{cc}K\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)=\frac{\partial \left(Y\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)}{\partial \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)}& \left(033\right)\end{array}$
In calculating the steady-state gain in accordance with this Equation utilizing the output relationship Y(u), the following will result:

[0144] $\begin{array}{cc}K\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)=\frac{\partial \left(\alpha \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)}{\partial \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)}\times F\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)+\alpha \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\frac{\partial \left(F\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)}{\partial \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)}+\frac{\partial \left(1-\alpha \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)}{\partial \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)}\times g\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)+\left(1-\alpha \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)\frac{\partial \left(g\left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)\right)}{\partial \left(\overrightarrow{u}\right)}& \left(034\right)\end{array}$

[0145] Referring now to FIG. 22, there is illustrated a block diagram of the embodiment for realizing the switching between the neural network model and the first principles model. A neural network block 300 is provided for the function f(u), a first principle block 302 is provided for the function g(u) and a confidence level block 304 for the function α(u). The input u(t) is input to each of the blocks 300–304. The output of block 304 is processed through a subtraction block 306 to generate the function 1−α(u), which is input to a multiplication block 308 for multiplication with the output of the first principles block 302. This provides the function (1−α(u))*g(u). Additionally, the output of the confidence block 304 is input to a multiplication block 310 for multiplication with the output of the neural network block 300. This provides the function f(u)*α(u). The output of block 308 and the output of block 310 are input to a summation block 312 to provide the output Y(u).

[0146] Referring now to FIG. 23, there is illustrated an alternate embodiment which utilizes discreet switching. The output of the first principles block 302 and the neural network block 300 are provided and are operable to receive the input x(t). The output of the network block 300 and first principles block 302 are input to a switch 320, the switch 320 operable to select either the output of the first principals block 302 or the output of the neural network block 300. The output of the switch 320 provides the output Y(u).

[0147] The switch 320 is controlled by a domain analyzer 322. The domain analyzer 322 is operable to receive the input x(t) and determine whether the domain is one that is within a valid region of the network 300. If not, the switch 320 is controlled to utilize the first principles operation in the first principles block 302. The domain analyzer 322 utilizes the training database 326 to determine the regions in which the training data is valid for the network 300. Alternatively, the domain analyzer 320 could utilize the confidence factor α(u) and compare this with a threshold, below which the first principles model 302 would be utilized.

[0148] Overall, model predictive control (MPC) has been the standard supervisory control tool for such processes as are required in the cement industry. In the cement industry, particulate is fabricated with a kiln/cooler to generate raw material and then to grind this material with a mill. The overall kiln/cooler application, in the present embodiment, utilizes a model of the process rather than a model of the operator. This model will provide continuous regulation and disturbance rejection which will allow the application to recover from major upsets, such as coating drop three times faster than typical operator intervention.

[0149] In general, mills demonstrate a severe non-linear behavior. This can present a problem in various aspects due to the fact that the gains at different locations within the input space can change. The cement kilns and coolers present a very difficult problem, in that the associated processes, both chemical and physical, are in theory simple, but in practice complex. This is especially so when commercial issues such as quality and costs of production are considered. The manufacturing of cement, and its primary ingredient, clinker, has a number of conflicting control objectives, which are to maximize production, minimize costs, and maximize efficiency, while at the same time maintaining minimum quality specifications. All of this optimization must take place within various environmental, thermodynamic and mechanical constraints.

[0150] A primary technique of control for clinker has been the operator. As rotary cement kilns and automation technology evolve, various automation solutions have been developed for the cement industry. These solutions have been successful to a greater or lessor extent.

[0151] In the present application, the process is modeled, rather than the operator, and model predictive control is utilized. Moves are made every control cycle to the process based on continuous feedback of key measurements. This gives rise to a continuous MPC action, as opposed to the intermittent, albeit frequent moves made by the typical expert system. In addition, as will be described hereinbelow, the approach described utilizes full multivariable control (MVC) techniques, which take into account all coupled interactions in the kiln/cooler process.

[0152] The cement mill is utilized to manufacture the various grades of cement after processing of the raw material, which are defined by their chemical composition and fineness (particle size distribution). The control objectives are thus to maximize production at minimum cost, i.e., low energy consumption for the various product grades, chemical compositions and specified fineness. In general, the mill utilizes a closed circuit where separators in the feed-back are utilized to classify the mill output into oversized and undersized product streams. The oversized stream, which does not conform to specification required for correct cement strength, is fed back into the mill for further grinding and size reduction. Depending upon the type of mill, controls include fresh feed, recirculating-load, as well as separator speed, all of which are used by the operator to control fineness, energy consumption and throughput.

[0153] In general, the mill grinding equations take the form of:
ln(P)=k₁+k₂*F
where:

[0154] P=particle size

[0155] F=feed rate

[0156] k₁ and k₂ are constants.

[0157] It has generally been stated in the literature that grinding model equations are non-linear and hence, direct application of linear control theory is not possible. The primary reason for this is that the operation of the plant is only non-linear in very small regions of the input space. Once the process has traversed, i.e., “stepped,” from one portion of the input space to another portion thereof, the overall model changes, i.e., it is non-linear. This lends itself to non-linear modeling techniques. However, most control systems are linear in nature, especially those that model the dynamics of the plant.

[0158] Referring now to FIG. 24, there is illustrated a diagrammatic view of the kiln/cooler configuration and the selected instrumentation utilized for optimal MPC control. This kiln/cooler consists of a five-stage suspension pre-heater kiln, with back-end firing (approximately fifteen percent of total firing). The cooler is a grate type with a conversion upgrade on the first section. It has on-line analyzers for NOx, O₂ and CO located at the top of a preheater 2402 which receives raw meal therein. The output of the preheater is input to a kiln 2404. There is provided a coal feed on an input 2406, the feed end and a coal feed 2408 on the firing end. The output of the kiln is input to a cooler 2410 which has an input cooler fan 2412. The output of the cooler provides the clinker. The overall plant is fully instrumented with all necessary measurements, e.g., temperature, pressure and flow measurements such as coal, raw meal and grate air. The quality of the clinker production is maintained by the analysis of hourly samples of the raw meal feed, clinker and coal. This is supported by a semi-automated sampling system, and various modern laboratory infrastructure.

[0159] This system is controlled with an MPC controller (not shown) that consists of the MPC control engine as described hereinabove, as well as a real-time expert system that performs a variety of pre and post processing of control signals as well as various other functions such as MPC engine control, noise filtering, bias compensation and real-time trending. This system will also perform set point tracking for bumperless transfer, and adaptive target selection. This allows for the controller tuning parameters to be changed according to various business and/or process strategies.

[0160] The MPC is defined in two primary phases the first being the modeling phase in which the models of the kiln processes are developed. The second phase is the deployment phase, where the models are commissioned and refined to a point where satisfactory control can be obtained. Central to commissioning is the tuning where the controller is tweaked to provide the desired control and optimization. For example this could be: maximum production at the expense of quality, or optimal quality at the expense of efficiency.

[0161] The MPC models are developed from the analysis of test and process data, together with knowledge from the plant operators and other domain experts. The result is a matrix of time responses, where each response reflects the dynamic interaction of a controlled variable to a manipulated variable.

[0162] The tuning involves the selection of targets (set points), weighting factors and various constraints for each variable. This determines how the controller will solve the control problem at any given time. The control of the kiln and its optimization within the above set of constraints is solved every control cycle.

[0163] The solution chosen in a particular control cycle may not seem to be necessarily optimal at that given time, but will be optimal within the solution space which has temporal as well as spatial dimensions. Thus the control solution is a series of trajectories into the future, where the whole solution is optimized with time. The very nature of optimal control in real time does not allow for a guarantee of a global optimal solution. However the calculation of an optimal solution within a finite amount of time is itself a class of optimization.

[0164] Some of the tuning parameters, which can be changed during operations, include:

• [0165] 1) Targets. Targets can be set for both controlled and manipulated variables, and the MPC controller will try and force all variables to their desired targets. In particular setting a target for a manipulated variable such as coal allows for optimization, and in particular efficiency, because the controller will continually seek a lower coal flow while maintaining production and quality. For some variables such as O₂, a target may not be necessary, and the variables will be allowed to roam within a band of constraints.
• [0166] 2) Priorities. Setting relative priorities between manipulated variables and controlled variables allows the controller to prioritize which are more important problems to solve, and what type of solution to apply. Under specified multivariable control (more manipulated variables than controlled variables, as is the case in this application) implies that for every problem there will be more than one solution, but within constraints one solution will generally be more optimal than others. For example, too high a hood temperature can be controlled by, (a) reducing fuel, (b) increasing the grate speed, or (c) increasing cooler airflow, or a combination of the above.
• [0167] 3) Hard Constraints. Setting upper and lower hard constraints for each process variable, for example, minimum and maximum grate speed. These values which are usually defined by the mechanical and operational limitations of the grate. Maintaining these constraints is obviously realizable with controlled variables such as ID-fan speed, but is more difficult to achieve with, for example, hood temperature. However when hood temperature exceeds a upper hard constraint of say 1200° C., the controller will switch priority to this temperature excursion, and all other control problems will “take a back seat” to the solution required to bring this temperature back into the allowable operating zone.
• [0168] 4) Soft upper and lower constraints. If any process variable penetrates into the soft constraint area, penalties will be incurred that will begin to prioritize the solution of this problem. Continuous penetration into this area will cause increasing prioritization of this problem, thus in effect creating an adaptive prioritization, which changes with the plant state.
• [0169] 5) Maximum rate of change constraints. These parameters are only applicable to the manipulated variables, and generally reflect a mechanical of physical limitation of the equipment used, for example maximum coal feed rate.

[0170] From a clinker production point of view the functions of the MPC application can be viewed as follows:

• [0171] 1) Kiln Combustion Control where manipulated variables such as ID-fan speed and fuel-flow are manipulated to control primarily O₂. When CO rises above a specified threshold constraint, it will override and become the controlled variable. The controller is tuned to heavily penalize high CO values, steer the CO back into an acceptable operating region, and rapidly return to O₂ control.
• [0172] 2) Kiln Thermal “Hinge Point” Control adjusts total coal, cooler grate speed, and cooler fans to control the hood temperature. The hood temperature is conceptualized as the “hinge” point on which the kiln temperature profile hangs. The controller is tuned to constantly minimize cooler grate speed and cooler fans, so that heat recovery from the cooler is maximized, while minimizing moves to coal.
• [0173] 3) Kiln Thermal “Swing Arm” Control adjusts percent coal to the kiln back-end, in order to control clinker free lime based on hourly lab feedback. This control function is about three times slower than the hinge point control, which maintains hood temperature at a fixed target. The “swing arm effect” raises or lowers the back end temperature with a constant firing end temperature to compensate for changes in free lime. This is in effect part of the quality control.

[0174] Kiln combustion control, kiln thermal hinge point control, and kiln thermal swing arm control are implemented in a single MPC controller. Kiln speed is included as a disturbance variable, as the production philosophy, in one embodiment, calls for setting a production rate to meet various commercial obligations. This means that any changes to kiln speed and hence production rate by the operator will be taken into account in the MPC predictions, but the MPC controller will not be able to move kiln speed.

[0175] The control system allows for customization of the interface between the plant and the MPC special control functions, the special control functions implemented including:

• [0176] 1) Total Coal Control allows the operator to enter a total coal or fuel flow set point.

[0177] The control system “wrapper” splits the move to the front and back individual coal flow controllers while maintaining the percent of coal to the back constant.

[0178] The purpose of this control function is to allow heating and cooling of the kiln while maintaining a constant energy profile from the preheaters through to the firing end of the kiln. This provides a solid basis for the temperature “hinge point” advanced control function previously described.

• [0179] 2) Percent Coal to the Back Control allows the operator to enter a percent coal to the back target and implements the moves to the front and back coal flow controllers to enforce it. The purpose of this control is to allow the back end temperature to be swung up or down by the thermal “swing arm” advanced control function.
• [0180] 3) Feed-to-Speed Ratio Control adjusts raw meal feed to the kiln to maintain a constant ratio to kiln speed. The purpose of this controller is to maintain a constant bed depth in the kiln, which is important for long-term stabilization.
• [0181] 4) Cooler Fans Control is a move splitter that relates a single generic cooler air fans set point to actual set points required by n cooler air fans. The expert system wrapper through intelligent diagnostics or by operator selection can determine which of the air cooler fans will be placed under direct control of the MPC controller, thus allowing for full control irrespective of the (for example) maintenance being undertaken on any fans.
• [0182] 5) Gas analyzer selection. The control system automatically scans the health of the gas analyzers, and will switch to the alternative analyzer should the signals become “unhealthy’. In addition the control system is used to intelligently extract the fundamental control signals from the O₂ and CO readings, which are badly distorted by purge spikes etc.

[0183] Referring now to FIG. 25, there is illustrated a block diagram of the non-linear mill and the basic instrumentation utilized for advanced control therein. The particle size overall is measured as “Blaine” in cm²/gm, and is controlled by the operator through adjustment of the fresh feed rate and the separator speed. The mill is a ball mill, which is referred to by reference numeral 2502. The fresh feed is metered by a fresh feed input device 2506 which receives mined or processed material into the mill 2502, which mill is a mechanical device that grinds this mined or processed material. In this embodiment, the mill is a ball mill, which is a large cylinder that is loaded with steel balls. The mill 2502 rotates and is controlled by a motor 2508 and, as the material passes therethrough, it is commuted to a specified fineness or Blaine. The output of the mill is input to an elevator 2510 which receives the output of the mill 2502 and inputs it to a separator 2512. This is a feedback system which is different than an “open circuit” mill and is referred to as a “closed circuit” mill. The mill product is fed into the separator 2512, which separator 2512 then divides the product into two streams. The particles that meet product specification are allowed to exit the system as an output, represented by a reference numeral 2514, whereas the particles that are too large are fed back to the input of the mill 2502 through a return 2516 referred to as the course return.

[0184] There are provided various sensors for the operation of the mill. The separator speed is controlled by an input 2518 which signal is generated by a controller 2520. The elevator 2510 provides an output 2522, which constitutes basically the current required by the elevator 2510. This can be correlated to the output of the mill, as the larger the output, the more current that is required to lift it to the separator 2512. Additionally, the motor 2508 can provide an output. There is additionally provided an “ear,” which is a sonic device that monitors the operation of the mill through various sonic techniques. It is known that the operation of the mill can be audibly detected such that operation within certain frequency ranges indicates that the mill is running well and in other frequency ranges that it is not running well, i.e., it is not optimum.

[0185] Overall, the mill-separator-return system is referred to as a “mill circuit.” The main control variable for a mill circuit is product particle size, the output, and fresh feed is manipulated to control this variable. A secondary control variable is return and separator speed is manipulated to control this variable. There are also provided various constants as inputs and constraints for the control operation. This controller 2520 will also control fresh feed on a line 2524.

[0186] The response of particle size to a move in fresh feed is known to be slow (one-two hours) and is dominated by dead time. Where a dead time to time constant ratio exceeding 0.5 is known to be difficult to control without model predictive control techniques, documents ratios for the response of particle size to a move in fresh feed includes 0.9 and 1.3.

[0187] In the case of a closed-circuit mill, a move to fresh feed effects not only the product particle size, but also the return flow. Also, a move to separator speed effects not only the return flow, but also the particle size. This is a fully interactive multi-variable control problem.

[0188] The controller adjusts fresh feed and separator speed to control Blaine and return. It also includes motor and sonic ear as outputs, and the sonic ear is currently used as a constraint variable. That means when the sonic ear decibel reading is too low then fresh feed is decreased. In this way the controller maximizes feed to the sonic ear (choking) constraint.

[0189] Referring now to FIG. 26, there is illustrated a dynamic model matrix for the fresh feed and the separator speed for the measured variables of the Blaine Return Ear and motor. It can be seen that each of these outputs has a minimum and maximum gain associated therewith dead-time delay and various time constants.

[0190] Referring now to FIG. 27, there is illustrated a plot of log sheet data utilized to generate a gain model for the controller 2520. This constitutes the historical data utilized to train the steady state non-linear model.

[0191] In general, the operation described hereinabove utilizes a non-linear controller which provides a model of the dynamics of the plants in a particular region. The only difference in the non-linear model between one region of the input space to a second region of the input space is that associated with the dynamic gain “k.” This dynamic gain varies as the input space is traversed, i.e., the model is only valid over a small region of the input space for a given dynamic gain. In order to compensate for this dynamic gain of a dynamic linear model, i.e., the controller, a non-linear steady state model of the overall process is utilized to calculate a steady-state gain “K” which is then utilized to modify the dynamic gain “k.” This was described in detail hereinabove. In order to utilize this model, it is necessary to first model the non-linear operation of the process, i.e., determining a non-linear steady state model, and then also determine the various dynamics of the system through “step testing.” The historical data provided by the log sheets of FIG. 27 provide this information which can then be utilized to train the non-linear steady state model.

[0192] Referring now to FIGS. 28a and 28b, there are illustrated plots of process gains for the overall non-linear mill model with the scales altered. In FIG. 28a, there is illustrated a plot of the sensitivity versus percent of Blaine to the two manipulated variables. There are provided two plots, one for separator speed and one for fresh feed. The upper plot illustrates that the sensitivity of Blaine to separator speed is almost constant, whereas the gain of Blain to fresh feed varies considerably. It can be seen that at a minimum, the gain is approximately −1.0 and then approaches 0.0 as fresh feed increases. In the plot of FIG. 28b, there are illustrated two plots for the sensitivity versus percent for return. In the upper plot, that associated with the percent movement of separator speed, it can be seen that the gain varies from a maximum of 0.4 at a low separator speed to a gain of 0.0 at a high separator speed value. The sensitivity to fresh feed varies similarly, with less range. In general, the plots of FIGS. 28a and 28a, it can be seen that the sensitivity of the control variable, e.g., Blaine in FIG. 28a and return in the plot of FIG. 28b, as compared to the manipulated variables of separator speed and fresh feed. The manipulated variables are illustrated as ranging from their minimum to maximum values.

[0193] In operation of the controller 2520, the process gains (sensitivities) are calculated from the neural network model (steady state model) at each control execution, and downloaded into the predictive models in the linear controller (dynamic model). This essentially provides the linear controller with the dynamic gains that follow the sensitivities exhibited by the steady-state behavior of the process, and thereby provides non-linear mill control utilizing a linear controller. With such a technique, the system can now operate over a much broader specification without changing the tuning parameters or the predictive models in the controller.

[0194] Referring now to FIG. 29, there is illustrated a plot of non-linear gains for fresh feed responses for both manipulatible variables and control variables. The manipulatible variable for the fresh feed is stepped from a value of 120.0 to approximately 70.0. It can be seen that the corresponding Blaine output and the return output, the controlled variables, also step accordingly. However, it can be seen that a step size of 10.0 in the fresh feed input does not result in identical step in either the Blaine or the return over the subsequent steps. Therefore, it can be seen that this is clearly a non-linear system with varying gains.

[0195] Referring now to FIG. 30, there is illustrated four plots of the non-linear gains for separator speed responses, wherein the separator speed as a manipulatible variable is stepped from a value of approximately 45.0 to 85.0, in steps of approximately 10.0. It can be seen that the return controlled variable makes an initial change with an initial step that is fairly large compared to any change at the end. The Blaine, by comparison, appears to change an identical amount each time. However, it can be seen that the response of the return with respect to changes in the separator speed will result in a very non-linear system.

[0196] Referring now to FIG. 31, there is illustrated an overall output for the closed loop control operation wherein a target change for the Blaine is provided. In this system, it can be seen that the fresh feed is stepped at a time 3102 with a defined trajectory and this results in the Blaine falling and the return rising and falling. Further, the separator speed is also changed from one value to a lower value. However, the manipulatible variables have the trajectory thereof defined by the non-linear controller such that there is an initial point and a final point and a trajectory therebetween. By correctly defining this trajectory between the initial point and the final point, the trajectory of the Blaine and the return can be predicted. This is due to the fact that the non-linear model models the dynamics of the plant, these dynamics being learned from the step tests on the plant. This, of course, is learned at one location in the input space and, by utilizing the steady state gains from the non-linear steady state model to manipulate the dynamic gains of the linear model, control can be effected over different areas of the input space, even though the operation is non-linear from one point in the input space to another space.

[0197] Referring now to FIG. 32, there is illustrated a block diagram for a prior art control system utilizing a model predictive control device 3202. The MPC 3202 is operable to generate variables that are input to a process 3204. As noted hereinabove, this process could be the operation of a manufacturing plant or it could be an economic process. The MPC 3202 is operable to receive inputs to the system x(t), predict a new variable for a “move” to a different level and then apply that move to the process input of the process 3204. These actual inputs to the process 3204 are also input to a model 3206 of the process 3204. As noted hereinabove, this model can be a linear or a non-linear model which has stored therein a representation of the process 3204. Typically, in a non-linear model such as a neural network, this model is based upon historical data and provides a fair representation of the model as it has operated in the past. However, this model 3206 does not have stored therein as a learned representation any information regarding things that might happen such as a “chaotic” event. An example of such an event would be that associated with a blast furnace or a recovery boiler wherein the process may undergo a sudden change by either a slag fall or a liquor explosion, respectively. Controlled variables, including temperatures, can change very quickly. These processes exhibit chaotic behavior, where a small change in the input can cause a very large change in the output. As such, these are difficult if not impossible to model in the model 3206, which model 3206 could be a non-linear model as described hereinabove or even a linear model.

[0198] The output of the model 3206 is input to a difference block 3208, which compares the output of the model 3206, the predicted output, with the output of the process 3204, this process output being a vector y(t). The output of the block 3208 represents an error. This error is then fed back to the input of the MPC 3202 which represents that a change must be made in the original manipulatible variables (MV) that are input to the MPC 3202. When this error is present, this indicates to the MPC 3202 that a change must be made in the input to the process 3204. This is a conventional process that is described in Morari, N. and E. Zafriou, “Robust Process Control,” Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1989, which is incorporated herein by reference.

[0199] One disadvantage of the prior art system, as noted hereinabove, is that the chaotic process cannot be modeled by the model 3206. A few processes that are characterized by a combination of long periods of continuous behavior interrupted by occasional chaotic events can be controlled by an MPC during continuous operation. However, the chaotic processes cannot be repeatedly represented by step response models and, therefore, very fast changes are not possible with an MPC. Rather, the prior art systems utilize what is referred to as “expert systems” that model the response of the operator. These are applied to the system with “Forward Chaining” (FC) logic that can be applied to deal with sudden changes. The Forward Chaining rules or expert rules are what can be referred as “if-then” rules which are a set of rules that represent what an operator would do if a certain condition exuded itself. For example, if a blast furnace underwent a slag fall, this would cause the temperature to dramatically change, which would be recognized by the MPC. However, there are other measurement systems that are not necessarily utilized by the MPC but which exhibit a “spike” that, when recognized as a spike by the operator, would elicit an immediate response from the operator that would be an unusual response that would not be within the normal operating parameters of the process as controlled by the MPC. These if-then rules would be applied immediately and they would be applied very fast, as they are “conditional,” i.e., when the condition exhibits itself, the response is finite and immediate.

[0200] In FIG. 33, the process 3204 is illustrated as having the output thereof input to an expert system 3206 and then the input to the process 3204 controlled by the expert system. One example of a process that MPC control systems can be utilized with are cement kilns, where the main upset is caused by a “coating drop” or “ring” where up to two tons of coating may dislodge from the refractory lining and fall to the bed. This upsets the calcining and sintering reactions, causing rapid, drastic temperature changes in the kiln. It can disrupt normal clinker processing for several minutes, and the upset may take up to three hours to recover from. This type of upset may happen as often as every six hours and even the MPC requires approximately one hour to recover.

[0201] Referring now to FIG. 34, there is illustrated a block diagram of the combination of the MPC control system and the expert system (FC) of the present disclosure. The output process 3204 is input to an expert system block 3402, with the output thereof input to a summing block 3204, which sums the output of the MPC with the output of the expert system 3402, the output of the block 3204 providing the input to the process 3204. Therefore, the output of the expert system 3402 is summed with the MPC output and, therefore, provides an “override.” It is noted that the block 3204 is disposed after the input to the model; that is, the model receives the output directly from the MPC and not from the output of the block 3204. Therefore, any change that is applied to the process 3204 is not input to the model 3206 and, therefore, the model 3206 has no knowledge of the change. However, it is noted that the model 3206 receives a number of inputs from the MPC 3202, these being what are referred to as the manipulated variables (MV), these being the variables that can be adjusted. However, there are a number of other sensor outputs that will be fed to the model 3206. These represent the various states of the system. They can be such things as temperatures, grate speeds, etc. It may even be that the output that is input to the expert system 3402 actually comprises one of these state measurements, although it is not illustrated as such. However, the model 3206 handles changes differently than would the expert system 3403, as will be described hereinbelow.

[0202] In general, expert systems facilitate decisions by forward chaining (FC) and backward chaining (BC). BC utilizes a set of results to back-calculate the causes for those results. A good example of this would be an alarm fault detection, wherein BC is utilized to determine the cause of a set of process alarms that have been triggered. Since BC determines a cause rather than making a move, it is not used for process control, and, more specifically, it is not suitable to enhance the operation of the MPC 3202. On the other hand, FC includes the simple if-then rules that operators would utilize in everyday operation of the plant. For example, “if the traffic light is green, then I may proceed through the intersection.” FC logic can be implemented to make a process move, and, as such, is suitable to enhance the operation of the MPC, albeit enhance it only in a “decoupled” manner. To state the comparison between BC and FC differently, BC deals with history, and FC deals with prediction. Hence, FC alone is suitable to enhance the MPC operation.

[0203] The FC structure in the expert system 3402 is a “feed forward” system with no feedback, whereas the MPC operation is characterized by a compounded feedback structure with two feedback loops. The FC structure has no error junctions, whereas the MPC structure has two error junctions. The FC utilizes what are referred to as “set point ranges” in a block 3404 to determine in which ranges no action is to be taken. As such, there is absolutely no feedback to the process when the controlled variable is within range. Once the controlled variable is outside it's range, the action is automatically taken. Overall, the features of the MPC operation include a model of the process, a predictive operation, closed-loop control, a control system that is based upon an algorithm, various set points that can be provided for controlled variables, integrated dynamics into this model and the fairly robust operation. This robust operation refers to the fact that the performance of the MPC will not deteriorate quickly when the step response models utilized to represent the dynamic response to the process are not accurate. This property of MPC arises from the associated compounded feedback structure. This is one of the reasons that these MPC applications have sustained up-time. The FC operation, on the other hand, is a system that utilizes a model of the operator, is not predictive but, rather algebraic, utilized for open-loop control, is rule-based, has no set points, but has ranges for controlled variables, no dynamics embedded therein and is fast. This last feature of the FC provides the quick response necessary to compensate for a chaotic action, and it the reason for utilizing FC in the present disclosure to complement an MPC for a semi-chaotic process.

[0204] In general, MPC utilizes predictions over a horizon that run to the next steady-state. If the average time between chaotic upsets is shorter than this prediction interval, then MPC will be continuously upset and the associated prediction and resulting control moves continually disrupted. If the process is chaotic to this extent, it is termed “chaotic process” and MPC is not suitable. In prior art systems, only FC would achieve the desired results. However, if the process is not chaotic where the upsets are so infrequent as to have negligible economic impact on an annual basis, then MPC would be suitable and FC would not be necessary. The problem arises when the process has chaotic upsets but the average interval between upsets is greater than the length of the MPC prediction horizon. This would then be termed a “semi-chaotic” process and the combination of the MPC and FC would be recommended in accordance with the present disclosure.

[0205] Referring now to FIG. 35, there is illustrated a simple diagram of a plurality of moves made by an MPC. There is provided a trajectory 3502 and a plurality of moves 3504 which are made by the MPC 3202. The moves are made on a periodic basis and they are very small in nature, as these are the predicted moves to achieve the desired trajectory. However, if some chaotic or semi-chaotic process were to occur, this would result in a large jump in the desired path which the MPC would have to track to bring it back into control. However, with the expert system in the FC mode, a very large change can be made outside of the MPC to prevent the desired trajectory 3502 from moving to any extent. This is exhibited by a dotted line 3508 wherein the actual path is moved to a much higher level and then MPC continues from there. This is a drastic change that is not the result of the MPC 3202. Therefore, the MPC will provide the main continuous control action whereas the FC provides emergency override action. While FC moves could be made to the MPC set point, i.e., it could control the actual operation of the MPC 3202, this is not recommended, as the resulting move to the MPC manipulated variables (set points of the overall control system) are not fast enough to counter the chaotic upset. Rather, it is herein disclosed that the FC moves completely bypass or are decoupled from the MPC control room, and go directly to the control of the process 3204. In general, these moves go to a set point bias function in the digital control system, which is implemented to allow the MPC to utilize only the unbiased set point for read back, to update its predictions. If the biased set point were utilized, then the MPC, which does not have a prediction model with a chaotic upset, would quickly counteract the move made by FC. This bias technique allows the MPC to read back only the unbiased DCS set points, such that there is no change to the MPC predictions from an FC move. The predictions only change based on feedback from the controlled variables.

[0206] Referring now to FIG. 36, there is illustrated a diagrammatic view of a cement kiln example. The kiln is basically a steel tube 3602, which is approximately 200 feet long and 12 feet in diameter. Powdered feed limestone (plus certain added minerals) is processed by burning in order to form cement clinker. The kiln is slightly inclined toward a discharge end 3604, and rotates approximately twice per minute through the use of motors 3606. The feed stream enters from a feeder 3607 at the elevated end, where it is preheated to 900° C. for calcining. As the kiln rotates, the material, which flows in a bed, like rocky lava, is further heated through a calcining phase at 1100° C., gradually moving to the hotter firing end, where it is further heated to 1450° C. for sintering to form cement clinker. It takes approximately 45 minutes for a particle in the bed to flow from the feed end to the firing end of the kiln. It then falls out of the kiln into the cooler.

[0207] While the calcining reactions are endothermic, the sintering reactions are exothermic, and significant heat can be added to the kiln from the sintering reactions. The heat that is recovered from the cooler is reintroduced back into the kiln. Maximizing this energy recovery and running the kiln on the exotherm of sintering rather than on fossil fuel(s) is one of the objectives of kiln control. It is also very difficult to implement manually, as the kiln exhibits chaotic behavior by frequent small temperature excursions for no apparent reason. Moreover, the kiln exhibits semi-chaotic behavior by occasional large temperature dives resulting from a “coating drop” where a part of the “baked on” mineral coating that adheres to the kiln refractory bricks falls off (two tons may drop all at once). This results in a major upset to the material bed in the sintering zone and the kiln temperature, as it creates major a disturbance in the reaction and temperatures fall rapidly.

[0208] Erratic temperature behavior from a kiln may result in a hood 3608 temperature (THood), which is the main control temperature in the hood above the end of the firing end of the kiln where the clinker falls into the cooler grate, this usually representing the hottest temperature in the kiln. The kiln is operated with a closed-loop MPC wherein to control the hood temperature, there are provided three manipulated variables that are prioritized so that, when a deviation from setpoint occurs, they can be varied. These are the cooler fans, which are moved first and to the largest degree, the cooler grate speed, which is moved second and to a lesser degree and the total coal feed, which is moved last and to the smallest degree. Typically, when the system is operated, the MPC will vary these manipulatible variables to achieve a desired or target hood temperature. However, in the event of a rapid drop in the hood temperature, which is characteristic of a coating drop, an expert system 3610 would utilize the motor 3606 output in the form of kiln motor amps or torque to detect the coating drop. The imbalance of mass in the kiln results in a sudden decrease in motor amps. When this is noticed by the expert system 3610, then a rapid move to the total coal that is provided could be implemented, this being completely different than what would be predicted by the MPC system. The reason for this is that the MPC has no knowledge of this due to the fact that it was never trained on this type of an event. In the case of a rapid drop in the hood temperature, a move of a +0.5 tph may have been appropriate. This move would have gone directly to the coal feed manipulated variable, but it would not have been indicated as being any change in the coal feed to the MPC. The MPC would still predict a finite coal feed. Only the remaining disturbance to the hood temperature control variable would be seen, i.e., the MPC would still see the decrease in the hood temperature and would make a predicted move as to a correction. However, the expert system 3610 would have made a major correction which would have brought the temperature back up totally out of the control of the MPC. Since the +0.5 tph move to coal would likely cancel drop in the hood temperature much more effectively than the control to the cooler fan or the grate, this hood temperature would be stabilized within the control range much more quickly.

[0209] Referring now to FIG. 37, there is illustrated an alternate embodiment of the utilization of an expert system. In this embodiment, the disclosure relating to that of FIG. 34 is incorporated where a chaotic upset in the operation of the plant or process 3204 is detected and then a “move” summed with the operation of the MPC 3202. This is termed a “parallel” operation. In the example above, if a spike in the kiln motor amps was noted( the result of the added torque required to turn the unbalanced kiln after a coating drop), a forward chaining rule fires up that simply states “add 2 tons of coal.” Now, the MPC 3202 is unaware of this action. All it sees is an imbalance when the spik in the motor amps goes up, which it tries to compensate for, followed by the response to the kiln when the additional coal is added. The MPC 3202 will stop trying to take action to correct for this catastrophic event once the kiln settles out as a result of the addition of the coal. As such, this becomes just a residual upset, as the kiln recovers far faster with the FC controlled move than would be provided by the MPC 3202 alone, as the FC 3402 provides a control input in parallel with the control input from the MPC 3202.

[0210] Referring further to FIG. 37, the MPC 3202 is operable to provide an output to a summing block 3702 that will sum the outputs of the MPC 3202 with the outputs of the FC 3402. For example, it may be that, in the example above, the MPC 3202 will compensate for the spike in current by varying a few of the MVs, it being noted that a spike in the kiln motor amps due to a coating drop is probably outside of the training space of the model since it is a chaotic event, and the model would therefore probably not be able to predict any change that would result in the desired addition of 2 tons of coal, although it may vary other parameters that would eventually bring the plant back into a desired operating range. The output of the summing block is input to the process block 3204, which is depicted as having a controller block 3704 for receiving the control inputs and then generating the actual plant inputs x(t) to a plant/process 3706 for operation thereof.

[0211] However, there are other upsets that do not involve some measurement of the operation of the plant that causes the plant to operate differently and that can be corrected by making a “move” within the operation limits of the MPC 3202 or the FC 3402. For example, if there were an upset to general operating parameters of the plant, this is not something that could be corrected by a “move.” Such an example would be an upset in the fuel input.

[0212] In general, a cement kiln can use a variety of fuels, in addition to the common fuels of coal, gas and oil. Often waste fuels are used. Tires are a common waste fuel. The kiln is a good place to dispose of such waste materials, since the extreme temperatures and prolonged burning duration virtually completely destroy the constituent substances, while capturing and diluting the heavy metal oxides in the clinker structure.

[0213] Fuel scheduling is subject to fuel availability, environmental constraints and economics. It is quite common for fuels to be switched in and out, even on a daily basis. Removing a fuel, foe example, tires, from the kiln combustion process can create a large upset while the kiln operator compensates for the loss by increasing the remaining fuels to bring the kiln back to the proper energy balance. Sometimes the loss of fuel is not a planned event. For example, if a fuel feeder, say, the tires conveyer, stops for some reason, that fuel is immediately shut off. However, in either case, whether the fuel is shut off deliberately, or whether it is a consequence of some equipment stoppage, there is a measurement that indicates that the fuel has been terminated. This kind of measurement is not something that an MPC can correct for, as it cannot change an MV to correct for such an occurrence as there is no move, large or small, that will provide a correction therefor. To correct for this, a new fuel needs to be substituted therefor, but this would appear to the plant/process as an upset disturbance. To account for this, the MPC 3202 needs to be essentially re-parameterized. To facilitate this, a set of forward chaining rules are developed and fed forward to the MPC with an FC block 3708, which is operable to receive measured parameters regarding the operation of the process 3204 and apply a set of if-then-else rules as a result of some type of system upset that requires redefining of, for example, the set points for the MPC3202.

[0214] In order to determine what type of actions should be taken with the FC block 3708, for a given upset, the upset is manually induced and then a simple step test is conducted and the resulting step responses of the kiln controlled variables (temperature, for example ) are calculated. These step responses are then added to the MPC as measured disturbance models, i.e., the MPC has the set points, desired values, etc, changed. The MPC has to be re-parameterized to operate with the new fuel that is substituted for the old fuel and then take the necessary steps to bring the kiln back to energy balance. Again the model 3206 is not trained for this operation without the addition of the disturbance model.

[0215] When a fuel stoppage is indicated by measurement, the forward chaining logic detects this and a disturbance input is fed to the MPC models. The kiln controlled variable predictions immediately account for the fuel stoppage and, for example, temperatures are predicted to drop. Such a prediction would not have been possible without the disturbance input. The MPC 3202 then calculates moves in the other MVs, such as other fuels, to compensate for the drop, while taking constraints on these fuels or operational rules regarding combinations of fuels into account.

[0216] Referring now to FIG. 38, there is illustrated a modification of the embodiment of FIG. 34 with the addition of the FC block 3708. In this embodiment, the FC block 3708, which is illustrated as being “in series” with the operation of the MPC 3202, since it affects the operation thereof, is disposed in combination with the FC block 3402 which is in “parallel” with the operation of the MPC 3202. For the “in series” configuration, forward chaining rules affect the actual operation of the MPC 3202, i.e., the operation thereof is altered and, for the “in parallel” operation, the MPC 3202 operation is not altered. For the “in parallel” operation, a chaotic event such as a coating drop will result in a residual imbalance, but the moves made by the MPC 3202 will not vary greatly. For the “in series” operation, a disturbance input forces a prediction to be made by the MPC 3202 which will result in the MPC 3202 making the necessary move to bring the kiln into energy balance.

[0217] For example, in the “in series” operation, consider that the kiln is running along on tires as a fuel. The MPC 3202 is trained on this type of fuel and it knows how to react to maintain energy balance. If the fuel were changed, then the set points for that type of fuel could be input to the MPC 3202 and it would be able to control the plant accordingly. It is the “jump” from one type of fuel to another that is difficult, as the MPC 3202 is not trained on this type of upset. By simulating this in the simple step test, the reaction of the plant to the change over of, for example, from tires to natural gas, could be measured. It might be that there would be a drop in temperature over a short period of time which could be then be modeled in a disturbance model. This disturbance model would tell the MPC 3202 that a change from tires to gas as a fuel will result in a temperature drop and then the MPC 3202 will make the necessary moves to account for this in accordance the input disturbance model that was determined in the step responses determined in the manually induced stoppage. The forward chaining rules in the FC block 3708 determined that this disturbance model was to be input to the MPC 3202 as a result of the determination that the fuel changed from tires to gas. If the fuel changed to something else, another disturbance model would have to be used.

[0218] Although the preferred embodiment has been described in detail, it should be understood that various changes, substitutions and alterations can be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.